The more panic the market experiences, the lower the risk, as opportunities arise from declines. Now may be a golden opportunity, as many high-quality mainstream altcoins have fallen below their price-performance ratios, but there's no sign of a rebound in volume. Therefore, caution is advised when entering the market, especially when building a position on the right side of altcoins.
Xiao Miao is closely watching the stop-loss signal and plans to enter the market again to buy BTC stocks near 107,000 and 105,000.
Back to the technical side of the market:
In terms of macro data, last night's PCE was in line with expectations, the market rose slightly, and the trend remained unchanged.
#BTC : Bitcoin 'BTC 4-hour chart remains range-bound between 110,000 and 108,500. Weekend liquidity is weak, suggesting a short-term grinding market. Focus on the upper edge of 110,000. If it breaks and holds, it could reach 113,000-114,000. If it doesn't, continue looking towards the lower levels (a golden opportunity!).
#ETH : Following the heavy-volume bearish candlestick on the 25th , the price has broken below its upper range, but support remains strong, significantly weakening the bearish momentum. Focus on support at 3950 for the day, with resistance at 4180-4250. Whale have been buying on dips recently, and with the November escalation looming, a major Q4 rally is brewing . At this time, it's even more important to hold onto spot positions and avoid being easily swayed.
#SOL : After breaking through the support line, it quickly rebounded along the trendline. As long as this line remains intact, it can still hold. However, if it breaks and is confirmed, downward momentum will rekindle. In the short term, if the 205 resistance level is not broken, the rally will be in vain. 200, 198, and 195 are all key levels below; if they fail to hold, further declines are likely. A weekend rally will be useless; ultimately, it all depends on the BTC . If the BTC doesn't rise, SOL is likely to continue its pullback next week.
Now the market is full of voices saying "it will fall to 2000" and "air force ATM"...
Honestly, I've long been accustomed to this kind of "bearish" scene . Traditional institutions always prioritize risk over opportunity. To them, crypto is simply a high-stakes gamble. Once volatility intensifies and sentiment cools, they begin to exaggerate the negatives. But for veteran investors, this drama plays out year after year. I personally don't think the bull market has reached its end, for three reasons:
① Every September, the market is very fragile
September is traditionally a "disaster month" for the crypto market, with large corrections being the norm in previous years.
Look at history: On September 24, 2021, the price plummeted from over 50,000 to over 30,000, but rebounded in October, ultimately reaching a peak of 69,000. In contrast, this time, the price plummeted from 118,000 to 108,000, a drop of less than 8.5%. This kind of correction is nothing for hoarders.
② The decline is closely related to the macro economy
This wave of adjustments is directly related to macroeconomic factors. For example, last night, Trump suddenly imposed tariffs of up to 100% on pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture. Meanwhile, US GDP exceeded expectations, unemployment claims fell short of expectations, and PCE inflation also exceeded expectations, directly reducing the probability of an October rate cut from 94% to 83%. Therefore, last night's impact was felt not only in the cryptocurrency market but also in the US stock market, which was essentially a disturbance caused by macroeconomic variables.
③ Geopolitical risks boost risk aversion
The situation between Russia and Ukraine has also escalated significantly recently. Trump has given Ukraine full support in regaining lost territory, and this escalation in geopolitical friction has naturally led to a risk-averse market.
Combining these three points, the current decline is actually completely "predictable short-term negative news" rather than a trend reversal.
- September is a correction month, and there is a high probability of a cyclical rebound after October;
- Although the expectation of interest rate cut has been reduced, there is still an 80% probability, and the bull market logic has not changed;
My conclusion: This decline isn't the end of the bull market, but the beginning of the next one. I remain firmly optimistic about the 130,000 yuan target by the end of the year. This period of adjustment is actually the best time to buy low.
If you want to survive the cycle, you must learn to stay calm in panic and think in bad news.
The script for September seems familiar, but the next scene is the beginning of a big opportunity.
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The market moves in waves, and it’s easy to get lost if you go it alone.
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