Zcash (ZEC) holds bullish structure on daily timeframes, but short-term momentum remains bearish; risk of deep correction is not over.
ZEC increased 323% from $177 to $750 in 3 weeks, then fell 36.8% to $473 in 5 days. The levels of $463.5, $395.9 and $299.6 dominate the short-term scenario.
- 1 day still bullish, but H1–H4 shows sellers dominating; short term volatility high.
- Fibonacci levels 50%: $463.5; 61.8%: $395.9; 78.6%: $299.6 are the key buffer zones.
- Above $518 with high volume suggests bullish reversal; loss of $395 confirms bears in control.
Zcash Maintains Bullish Structure on Daily Frame, But Short-Term Momentum Tilts to the Bears
On the 1-day chart, ZEC price structure remains bullish; however, on H1–H4, bearish momentum prevails and the risk of further correction exists.
After a 323% increase from $177 to $750 in 3 weeks, ZEC quickly corrected 36.8% to the $473 area. This is a large volatility, reflecting strong profit-taking and high sensitivity to short-term liquidation . In this context, the scenario of a deeper decline cannot be ruled out.
Typically, corrections after a surge last several sessions until key technical support zones are tested. This requires close monitoring of volume and price reaction at established levels.
How far can ZEC go in this correction?
Based on the 3-week Fibonacci set of uptrends, the price is just above the 50% level at $463.50; the 61.8% ($395.90) and 78.6% ($299.60) levels are common targets to test before the correction ends.
The way the market often retraces to 61.8% and even 78.6% has been widely documented in technical analysis (see Investopedia, 2023 on Fibonacci retracement: Fibonacci Retracement ). With ZEC, OBV has fallen but is still above a local support, indicating that money has not yet drained out.
The RSI H4 indicator has fallen below the 50 threshold, reading at 40.9, reflecting a steady downtrend. As the RSI has not recaptured the 50 zone, it is difficult for the buyers to regain the initiative.
RSI measures the speed and change of price movements, helping to identify overbought/oversold conditions and momentum shifts.
– J. Welles Wilder Jr., creator of RSI, 1978, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems
The $475–$518 supply zone continues to be the preferred selling point on H1
The H1 chart is bearish, with the $475–$518 zone being a supply zone; pullbacks to this area are usually short-term trend selling opportunities.
A decisive ZEC above $518 would be an early sign of short-term strength, consistent with the bullish structure of the 1-day chart. Conversely, a weak reaction at the supply zone could drag the price to a deeper test of the Fibonacci levels.
The $520 area is also an important local resistance. A breakout of this area requires above- Medium volume to increase the probability of a sustainable reversal.
In technical analysis, volume often precedes price; volume spikes are much more reliable than price signals alone.
– Joseph E. Granville, technical analyst, 1963, Granville's New Key to Stock Market Profits
Liquidation data shows price traction around $400–$420 and $485–$490
CoinGlass' 1-week liquidation heatmap shows that a dip to $400 is possible; nearby liquidation clusters include $400–$420 and $485–$490.
Above $490, the $520–$540 zone becomes the next liquidation “magnet”. H1 observation shows that $520 is a strong resistance, which needs to be absorbed by strong volume to extend the uptrend.
Data Source: CoinGlass – Liquidation Heatmap ZEC . Price gravitating towards liquidation clusters is a common behavior as the market looks for a place to trigger pending orders.
Fibonacci and volume indicators reinforce deep correction risk
The possibility of testing $395.9 (61.8%) and then $299.6 (78.6%) will increase if OBV continues to break local support and RSI fails to return above 50.
According to Investopedia, the 61.8% level is often a “balance” point where buyers and sellers test their resolve, while the 78.6% level is often seen as a shakeout at the end of a sharp correction. For ZEC, the lack of a volume breakout in the $475–$518 range would reinforce the bearish argument.
Conversely, a rally above $518 with above Medium volume could be an early reversal signal, reconfirming the daily bullish bias.
Trading scenario: hold bias until $518 turns into support
The short-term bias is bearish until $518 is conquered and turns into support; loss of $395 would suggest that bears maintain control.
Confirmation of a sustainable reversal requires convergence: a break of $518, a close above $520, and Medium volume. In a bearish scenario, the price could pull back to $400–$420, or even $299.6 if liquidation piles below.
Avoid one-way judgment when the daily chart is still in an uptrend; better manage risk with zone trading and volume confirmation.
| Script | Technical conditions | Implications | Related price zones |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early bullish reversal | Surpassing $518 with above Medium volume | Short term strength signal, favorable daily frame | Resistance 520–540 USD |
| Continued adjustment | H1 rejected at 475–518 USD, RSI H4 below 50 | Fall to deeper Fibonacci levels | 463.5 USD, 395.9 USD, 299.6 USD |
| Attract liquidation near | Price fluctuates according to pending order clusters | Sideways or 2-way jerk | $400–$420, $485–$490 |
Key indicators to watch to increase the probability of reading the trend correctly
Priority to watch: price reaction at $475–518, volume above Medium, H4 RSI around 50, and OBV holding or losing local support.
OBV reflects accumulation/distribution money flow; when OBV breaks support before price, the risk of an extended decline increases. RSI retaking 50 on H4 is often accompanied by an improvement in H1–H4 structure.
Combined with the liquidation heatmap (CoinGlass), traders have more context on “magnet” price zones to prepare reasonable scenarios instead of reacting emotionally.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZEC bullish or bearish right now?
1-day timeframe is still bullish, but H1–H4 timeframe is clearly bearish. Short-term bias favors down until $518 is conquered with high volume.
What are the important prices to note?
Fibonacci: $463.5 (50%), $395.9 (61.8%), $299.6 (78.6%). Supply/Resistance Zones: $475–$518 and $520–$540. Liquidation Cluster: $400–$420, $485–$490.
When is a bullish reversal signal considered?
When ZEC broke above $518 and held above $520 with above Medium volume . This is consistent with the bullish structure of the daily chart.
Can ZEC Drop to $300?
Technically, the $299.6 level coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally. If the correction continues and liquidation is drawn to the downside, this scenario cannot be ruled out.
What data/sources should I track?
CoinGlass liquidation heatmap, RSI and OBV on H4/H1, volume vs Medium, and price reaction at $475–518, $520–540.
