Recent policy notes that the federal shutdown has had only a mild impact on growth, while a series of import tariff cuts for coffee, bananas and some fruits are under XEM and are expected to bring economic benefits in the first quarters of next year.
Several fiscal measures, including large tax rebates and import duty cuts, are under discussion; the timing of benefits is expected in the first and second quarters of next year, with distribution through various channels and no formal decision yet.
- Shutdown causes “small delays” but does not disrupt the overall economic trend.
- Expected reduction of import tax on coffee, bananas and some fruits, benefits distributed through many channels.
- Real incomes expected to recover in Q1–Q2; large tax refunds expected in early 2026.
Impact of shutdown on the economy
The shutdown was described as causing a “small delay” in economic activity rather than creating an immediate major recession.
The short-term impact may slow down some administrative activities and public spending, but if fiscal measures and tax refunds are implemented, the recovery momentum of consumption and real incomes could improve rapidly in the following quarters.
Expected reduction in import tax and affected items
Decisions to reduce import tariffs are being considered, with priority groups of goods including coffee, bananas and some other fruits.
The aim is to reduce import costs to support domestic prices and agricultural supply chain ; implementation may vary between commodities and will be discussed before formal policy is issued.
Actual income, tax refunds and benefit distribution
Real incomes are expected to recover in the first and second quarters of next year; a large tax rebate package is mentioned and expected to arrive in early 2026.
The distribution of tax benefits will likely use a variety of channels to reach households, while many implementation details and eligibility issues remain under discussion.
Who is the $2,000 tax refund for?
It is reported that a $2,000 tax refund is being considered for families earning less than $100,000, but details of the conditions and process have not been officially decided.
When do people feel economic improvement?
People are expected to feel an improvement in sentiment and income in the first and second quarters of next year, if fiscal measures and tax cuts are implemented promptly.
Which items will the import tax reduction apply to?
The product groups mentioned include coffee, bananas and some fruits; the final scope and reduction level are still under discussion.
Has the decision on benefit distribution been finalized?
No final decision yet; distribution channels and criteria are being discussed before policy details are issued.
