A statement that is causing fierce debate in the trader community:
“Layer-1 (ETH, SOL and underlying blockchains) is no longer worth investing in long term. Blockspace will always be redundant – like buying Cisco in 2000.”
This point was made by Jonah – host of the Blockworks podcast – and it created a huge debate.
But is this true? Or is it just too extreme a view?
Analyze with data, not emotions.
1. Is L1 No Longer Worth a Long-Term Investment? Here's Why This View Comes
1.1 Blockspace is really redundant
Hundreds of blockchains compete for speed & fees.
Most have the ability to expand beyond actual needs.
The number of chains is growing much faster than the number of real users.
Data:
According to Coin98 Analytics, more than 120+ EVM & non-EVM blockchains are active.
Many chains have theoretical TPS 10–100x higher than Solana.
→ Supply increases, demand does not increase accordingly → blockspace becomes cheaper, L1 Token value is diluted.
1.2 Comparison with Cisco in 2000
Cisco was once the king of Internet infrastructure, but:
Infrastructure capacity increases too quickly → supply exceeds demand.
Cisco stock has not returned to its 2000 ATH for 20 years.
Jonah's argument:
L1 today is like Cisco: strong initial growth → saturation → price difficult to increase in long term.
2. But Are ETH & SOL Really Like Cisco? Data Shows Otherwise
The view that “L1 is worthless because of redundant blockspace” is only half true .
❌ Blockspace may be redundant
✔️ But high value blockspace is extremely rare
Classic example:
“There is soil everywhere. But the soil of central New York is completely different from the soil of the Sahara.”
Blockchain is the same:
2.1 Ethereum – the most expensive blockspace on the market
Data:
1 day fee: highest in the crypto world
70% of DeFi TVL is on ETH & L2
Developer active: ~16,500 dev/year (Electric Capital 2024)
→ Developer chooses Ethereum → Dapp chooses Ethereum → Users flock to Ethereum → ETH blockspace has high value.
2.2 Solana – fastest user growth
Highlights from the last 12 months:
Solana active addresses increased by more than 300%
Solana DEX Volume Exceeds Ethereum for Several Consecutive Weeks
Meme + DeFi + SocialFi blooms → self-sustaining ecosystem
→ Solana has a flywheel that develops similarly to ETH in the 2020–2021 period.
2.3 Sui – the new challenger worth XEM
Dev growth rate is top.
Game & infrastructure projects are growing rapidly.
Cheap fees but real user/game activity is increasing.
3. The view that “Memecoin will reach 10B market cap” – Sounds absurd but completely grounded
Jonah also gave a second idea:
“Memecoin is not dead. A coin like $asscoin will hit $10 billion next year.”
Sounds crazy. But history doesn't lie.
Historical data:
Doge ATH: 88B USD
SHIB ATH: 40B USD
PEPE from 2023–2025: increase >1200 times
Each cycle, memecoin:
Leading the number of new users
Create huge Volume
Attract high-speed liquidation
Usually outperform L1 in the short term
→ In terms of market behavior: memecoin never dies.
4. So in the end: Are ETH & SOL worth investing in long term?
✔️ Worth it if you believe:
Value comes from network effect and developers.
Ethereum & Solana Flywheel Hasn't Topped Yet.
The market will favor quality over quantity of chains.
“Premium” Blockspace will still be highly valued.
❌ Not worth it , if you believe that:
Blockspace will become a commodity (like water, electricity).
Users will choose the cheapest, fastest chain (regardless of brand).
L1 has peaked in growth and is unlikely to return to high profitability.
5. Conclusion — The market may be diluting, but value is not evenly distributed
Both views have merit:
Memecoin: will continue to grow strongly , because the "lottery" mentality is human instinct.
L1: not dead , but only a few chains can hold real position.
The most important thing:
**Not “is there any blockspace left”,
but rather “who owns the most valuable blockspace”.**
Ethereum, Solana and a few other chains are proving it with real data.
Instead of choosing sides, traders and investors should ask themselves:
👉 Am I holding blockspace in the New York segment… or the Sahara desert?
