On November 22, Bitcoin experienced a continuous sell-off after hitting a record high on October 7, with a maximum drop of over 35% in 46 days. Yesterday, it almost lost the $80,000 mark, leading the entire cryptocurrency market to suffer a continuous decline and "bleeding" for several days. It has now rebounded slightly to around $85,000.
The downside risks in global financial markets have intensified recently. The AI bubble theory is dominating US stock market fluctuations. The record-breaking US government shutdown has delayed the release of various important macroeconomic data, liquidity has shrunk dramatically, and the probability of a December rate cut has fluctuated significantly. A summary of the specific negative factors is as follows:
• Market concerns arose regarding Nvidia's high accounts receivable and its lower-than-average cash conversion rate compared to its peers. Meanwhile, several AI companies were accused of using funds repeatedly, with some transactions being double-counted for revenue. Multiple investment institutions sold off Nvidia stock, and the perceived AI bubble had been suppressing the US stock market for an extended period, leading to an overall market downturn. However, last night, Federal Reserve officials expressed optimism about AI, and Nvidia's CEO clarified concerns about an AI bubble, causing a rebound in US stocks.
BlackRock's IBIT saw a record single-day outflow of $523 million on the 19th of this month, bringing the total net outflow for the month to over $2.5 billion, setting a new record for the largest consecutive day's market capitalization loss. Analysts say that the main selling pressure in the crypto market was the selling of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs by US retail investors, which severely impacted native crypto users.
The US government has just ended a record 43-day shutdown, during which the release of many important economic and employment data was suspended. September's non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surged by 119,000. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation caused significant fluctuations in the probability of a December rate cut, which initially fell from a high of 70% (25 basis points) to 30% in the past month, with traders even betting that there would be no rate cut in December. However, early this morning, several Fed officials collectively adopted a dovish stance, raising the probability of a rate cut to 71.3% (25 basis points), and betting on a rate cut has intensified again.
