➥ What happens to thBILL yield if US cuts rates?
the dynamics are actually very straightforward if ya understand how T-bills work
- $thBILL is basically the crypto-native wrapper for short-duration U.S. Treasuries
- a basket of 1-3 month T-bills made composable for DeFi
- mainly Wellington’s tULTRA via Standard Chartered’s Libeara + FundBridge
You can:
- trade it on Uniswap
- bridge it across @arbitrum /ETH/Base/HyperEVM via LayerZero
- use it as collateral
- hold and farm the underlying government yield
right now thBILL sits around ~$214M mcap, ~$1.01 price, with ~$7.9M daily volume
the key thing most people miss = thBILL yield = U.S. T-bill yield
so when the Fed cuts, thBILL’s APY goes down in the same direction, just with a 1-3 month delay as the basket rolls over
- 25 bps Fed cut → expect ~0.25-0.50% lower thBILL APY
- after the recent cuts, T-bill yields sit around 4.0-4.25%, pulling thBILL into that same range, down from the 5.3% highs in 2023-2024
onchain implications I see:
- lower APY makes thBILL less attractive vs riskier DeFi
- but lower rates often push more capital into safe RWAs → potential TVL growth
- delta-neutral or longer-duration bond strategies start looking better
- thBILL stays the high-vol anchor in Theo’s liquidity stack
if the Fed cuts another 25bps in Dec, i expect thBILL yield to slide into the ~3.75 - 4% zone
still solid for a secure onchain T-bill asset & soon the thGLD too

yeah i hold thBILL instead of stabelcoins
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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