Does the 4-year cycle still exist? I discussed several points with friends today, and I welcome any corrections: 1. According to some Bitcoin whale, historically, a portion of long-term Bitcoin holders engage in buying low and selling high during bull and bear market cycles, with the amount of Bitcoin they traded accounting for approximately 30% of the total Bitcoin supply. 2. Currently, Wall Street's holdings of DAT and ETFs account for about 12%, and growth has been slow since reaching a new high, with even slight signs of outflow. 3. Based on points 1 and 2, the existence of the four-year cycle in the industry has a self-fulfilling effect. Crypto investors still hold significantly more tokens than Wall Street's "diamond hands." When BTC holders trade according to the four-year cycle, a market downturn is almost impossible to reverse. 4. This cyclical pattern will only gradually be broken when a sufficient amount of capital (>30-40%) is washed into the hands of institutions that do not believe in the four-year cycle. 5. Due to the involvement of Wall Street and diamond traders, the maximum drawdown of BTC in this round will be significantly smaller than that of the previous cycle (-78%). As for the exact amount, it is difficult to predict. In my humble opinion, starting from -50% and gradually buying/dollarizing should be a very healthy strategy. 6. As for whether BTC can rise again to challenge $150,000 after the December interest rate cut and in the first half of the year, it depends on fate. Trying to catch the tail end of the fish is too greedy.