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I now prefer to call this round the early stage of Vibe Trading. I agree with Mr. Da's point of view: the "comprehensive judgment system" in the minds of top traders cannot be fully quantified for the time being, because it is a combination of the top trader's "higher self" + talent and luck (which even AI cannot simulate). However, the current trend is to let AI quantify the parts that can be separated, such as trading habits & personality, judgment combined with information, etc. If it covers the commonalities of all users, it will help you fight fatigue, emotions, and information noise. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of *The Black Swan*, recently stated that AI is deconstructing the academic system of modern finance and economics. To me, both traditional academic models and today's large AI models essentially compress the world into an illusion for easy calculation. AI, however, has massive amounts of real data and countless replicable agents, which may in turn dismantle these illusions piece by piece, forcing the market back to a more primitive and complex multi-game structure. Therefore, the question of whether AI can simulate or even beat top traders is inherently asymmetrical in its comparison. If you compare a human genius against a machine, in the short term, within a high-dimensional, incompletely observable world of information, the human will likely still be stronger. However, if ten thousand, or even a million, AI agents compete under the same rules over a long period, several new top quantitative traders will inevitably emerge. Humans will produce top traders, while AI will produce top quantitative traders; only by comparing them in this way can a fair comparison be made. This is precisely why, in the past two years, a group of crypto traders have begun to actively embrace AI, structuring their trading worldviews as much as possible to create Trading Agents and auxiliary tools. For example, @StarchildOnX is working on a project aimed at helping more people first develop a semi-automated trading mindset, and then gradually moving towards a new stage: human traders against human traders, AI traders against human traders, and finally evolving into AI traders against AI traders. At that point, the underlying logic of the entire market may truly be a completely different story.

很大很大的橙子
@0xVeryBigOrange
12-08
我一直觉得,顶级交易员的策略本质上是不可量化的。 我认识的这些顶级选手,都是把每天变化的宏观、流动性、叙事、情绪,再横向对比不同品种的强弱,揉成一套只存在于他们脑子里的“综合判断体系”。 (晴天也属于这种典型。) 这也是为什么 CTA x.com/williamlu126/s…
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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