A major expiration date has arrived for options contracts related to major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). As of the 12th (local time), approximately $4.3 billion (approximately KRW 6.3475 trillion) worth of options contracts are set to expire, and the market is on edge about the impact.
This expiration includes 39,000 Bitcoin options contracts, with an estimated notional value of approximately $3.6 billion (approximately KRW 5.3144 trillion). The "Max Pain" price for these contracts is approximately $90,000 (approximately KRW 132.85 million), and the "put/call ratio," which represents the ratio of call options to put options, stands at 1.1. This indicates that contracts betting on a decline have a slight advantage.
Deribit, an options trading platform, currently reports that the highest open interest in Bitcoin options is $100,000 (approximately KRW 141.8 million). This price range alone holds approximately $2.7 billion worth of contracts. Conversely, short contracts at $80,000 (approximately KRW 113.45 million) and $85,000 (approximately KRW 120.53 million) each represent over $2 billion worth of contracts.
Ethereum has approximately 247,000 options contracts expiring, with a notional value of $768 million (approximately KRW 1.1344 trillion). The Max Payne level is $3,100 (approximately KRW 4.57 million), and the put/call ratio stands at 1.24. Deribit analyzed, "Positioning is close to neutral, but there is still a concentration of call options, reflecting expectations of a rise in ETH price if volatility reignites."
The total open interest in options was calculated to be $54.6 billion (approximately KRW 80.622 trillion) for Bitcoin and $12 billion (approximately KRW 17.7144 trillion) for Ethereum.
Market reaction has been relatively muted so far. The US Federal Reserve previously cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, but the move was already reflected in the market, resulting in little reaction. Greeks Live, a cryptocurrency derivatives analysis firm, maintained a cautious stance, stating, "It's too early to conclude that this rate cut signals the resumption of quantitative easing (QE) or the start of a bull market."
The spot market is also moving sideways with little change. Bitcoin once surpassed $93,000 (approximately 131.92 million won) during the session, but encountered resistance and fell back to around $92,000 (approximately 130.44 million won). Ethereum is also showing limited price movement around the $3,200 (approximately 4.72 million won) level. Only a few altcoins, such as Solana (SOL), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Monero (XMR), and Zcash (ZEC), are showing slight gains.
Meanwhile, market experts point out the possibility that the illiquid environment will persist during the year-end season. The general consensus is that "the approach of Christmas and year-end financial settlements traditionally leads to periods of liquidity shortages, which could limit short-term upward momentum."
Article Summary by TokenPost.ai
๐ Market Interpretation
This option expiration is more of a "neutral positioning" than a Bitcoin-centric one.
Market participants appear to be waiting for the 'next catalyst' rather than a clear buying or selling trend.
Given that both BTC and ETH's Max Payne are close to their current prices, significant price fluctuations are likely to be limited.
๐ก Strategy Points
Market liquidity is shrinking as the year-end season approaches, and this maturity is likely to continue the "low volatility-low response" trend.
Options traders are expected to continue their strategy of controlling profits and losses within a narrow price range.
๐ Glossary
- Option expiration date
- The date an option contract expires. Market price fluctuations may be concentrated at this point.
- Max Pain
- The theoretical price point at which the loss of option buyers is maximized and the option seller is in favor
- Put/Call Ratio
- A supplementary indicator that determines investor sentiment by calculating the ratio of put options betting on a decline and call options betting on a rise.
- Open Interest
- The number of options contracts remaining in the market that have not yet been liquidated, indicating liquidity and the strength of demand.
TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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