Bitwise research team released " Top 10 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026 ," outlining a future blueprint for crypto's mainstream financialization, from Bitcoin breaking its four-year cycle and ETFs being in short supply to stablecoins impacting emerging markets. These trends not only reflect a comprehensive shift in market structure but also indicate that 2026 will be a key turning point for the industry.
Bitcoin breaks four-year cycle: Institutional rush reshapes market rhythm
Bitwise first pointed out that the four-year bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin, which relied on factors such as "halving cycles, leverage booms and interest rate cycles" in its early stages, will be officially broken in 2026 as institutions accelerate their adoption.
Historical data shows that BTC has exhibited a typical structure of "three years of rise followed by one year of fall" in the past three four-year cycles. However, since the listing of ETFs, the market has shifted to a new market structure centered on allocation demand. Bitwise bluntly stated: "2026 is expected to see a new high, rather than a repeat of the inherent cycle."
Bitcoin's volatility is lower than Nvidia's: From speculation to institutional asset
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 1-year rolling volatility fell below Nvidia's for the first time in 2024-2025, and Bitwise believes this trend will continue: "This signifies that Bitcoin is entering a period of maturity."
The team emphasized that this trend is primarily driven by ETFs, compliant custody, and a diversified investor base, indicating that Bitcoin is transforming from a high-risk asset into a long-term allocation tool.
ETFs will buy over 100% of BTC, ETH, and SOL. New supply: An unprecedented supply-demand gap.
In addition, since the launch of ETFs in 2024, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has cumulatively purchased 710,000 BTC, 3.498 million ETH, and 4.126 million SOL, which is 1.5 to 2 times the new supply during the same period.
Bitwise predicts that this gap will continue to widen in 2026, potentially leading to strong buying pressure for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, which will become the core driving force for the market.
Will crypto stocks significantly outperform tech stocks and become a new hot spot in traditional finance?
The Bitwise Crypto Innovation 30 Index (BITQ) has risen more than 585% over the past three years, far outperforming the 140% of technology stocks.
The team believes that with the explosive growth in demand for custody, market making, and on-chain infrastructure, crypto stocks have become a high-growth sector in the capital market: "We expect this trend to continue into 2026 due to additional revenue streams, M&A activity, and a favorable regulatory environment."
Polymarket open interest hits new record high: Event-driven market becomes mainstream
During the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket's open interest surpassed $600 million, breaking the platform's record. Now, Bitwise predicts that this figure will peak again in 2026 due to three main reasons, thus moving from the crypto space to the mainstream:
The US market is officially open.
ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, invests in various companies.
Markets outside of politics, such as sports, entertainment, and the economy, are growing rapidly.
Stablecoins disrupt exchange rates in various countries, increasing pressure on the dollar's hegemony.
With the market capitalization of stablecoins approaching $300 billion and expected to surpass $500 billion by 2026, Bitwise believes that more and more people will use dollar-denominated stablecoins as a safe haven, and some emerging countries with fragile currencies will blame stablecoins for their currency depreciation.
Of course, they are wrong. If the local monetary system is sound, people won't turn to stablecoins.
Are on-chain investment funds booming and becoming a new tool for Wall Street?
Onchain Vaults' assets under management (AUM) surged from $100 million in 2024 to nearly $9 billion in 2025, a growth rate comparable to that of the early DeFi and ETF markets.
Bitwise predicts that 2026 will see an influx of professional-grade "on-chain asset managers," with AUM potentially doubling again, and Wall Street will begin to assess the potential of on-chain funds as a next-generation financial instrument.
The CLARITY Act will help ETH and SOL surge.
Bitwise also stated that the long-term trend brought about by stablecoins and tokenization would have benefited ETH and SOL, but the CLARITY Act is the biggest catalyst that determines whether this trend will begin.
The two assets currently have 40% to 55% upside potential from their all-time highs. Once legislation establishes asset classifications, they could reap the greatest regulatory benefits and reach new highs in 2026.
Half of Ivy League universities will allocate funds to crypto assets, leading a trend in fund purchases.
Currently, only Harvard and Brown University have publicly disclosed their Bitcoin allocations of 0.18% to 0.77%, but Bitwise expects at least half of the Ivy League schools to be involved by 2026.
The team emphasized that the Ivy League has a strong demonstration effect; if the average allocation reaches 1%, it will bring in billions of dollars in inflows and drive more long-term funds such as insurance and retirement funds to follow suit.
2026 to be the year of ETF boom: Hundreds of crypto ETFs to be listed in the US
From the application for a Bitcoin ETF in 2013 to the listing of BTC and ETH spot ETFs in 2024, the market has gone through ten years.
Following the SEC's release of the Common Listing Standard in 2025, Bitwise predicts that 2026 will see an "ETF frenzy," with over 100 crypto ETFs emerging simultaneously, including multi-asset, thematic, index, and on-chain structured strategies, completely reshaping the investment landscape.
The "Miller Star" of the crypto world is just a step behind for traditional finance.
Bitwise’s top ten predictions outline the institutional landscape of the crypto market in 2026, shifting from speculation to long-term demand-driven growth.
As ETF analyst Eric Balchunas put it , "TradFi investors typically hold eight meetings before deciding on an allocation, and that's just how slow it is."
The crypto world is like Miller's Planet in Interstellar, while people in traditional finance are struggling to adapt to Earth's timeline. This adjustment will take time, but it's necessary for their mental well-being. The good news is, the real big money is still on Earth.
In other words, 2026 may be a pivotal turning point where the timelines of the two worlds officially align for the first time.
This article, "Bitwise 2026 Prediction: Institutions Break the Bitcoin Cycle, Will ETH and SOL Surge Due to Regulatory Benefits?", first appeared on ABMedia, a ABMedia .
