BTC: Summary of discussions in Orange's muted group (daily market analysis) (17:00:06 ~ 18:00:06)

1. Current Recommended Direction - BTC's price movement is abnormal, exhibiting characteristics of a manipulated altcoin that "pumps up first and then dumps". Short-term traders should not blindly trust the upward movement, as there is a risk of being trapped. - The market is in a bear market phase, and even big names in the crypto like CZ and Maji are trapped. Long is extremely risky, and it is not recommended to chase the upward trend. - It is advisable to remain on the sidelines and wait for the "winter" to pass before taking any action. - Although ETF funds saw a $457 million inflow, there was a clear divergence among major players, and Coinbase experienced a negative premium, suggesting a potential significant risk of short-term correction. 2. Position and Risk Management Recommendations - It is recommended to maintain a light position or stay out of the market and observe, avoiding heavy trading. - The contract market is high-risk and prone to being "sacrificed," so high-leverage operations are not recommended. - It is recommended to "hold onto your money and avoid reckless spending," keep your funds safe, and wait for a clear trend to be confirmed before taking action. - There are no clear profit-taking or stop-loss points; the focus is on controlling risk and avoiding being trapped by chasing high prices. 3. Adapt to trading styles - Suitable for conservative medium- to long-term investors who "wait patiently for the winter to pass," not suitable for aggressive short-term speculation. - It is not advisable to linger in the contract market. Short-term rallies are often the result of "market manipulation and dumping," and quick entry and exit carry significant risks. - Pay attention to the performance of the US AI sector and macroeconomic variables such as Japan's interest rate hikes as catalysts for future market trends. - Maintain a wait-and-see approach, and wait for the market to clarify its direction before tentatively establishing a position.