U.S. November CPI came in below expectations across the board. Headline CPI eased to 2.7% YoY, while core CPI fell to 2.6%, both marking their lowest levels in over two years. Although the absence of October CPI due to the government shutdown introduces potential downside bias, markets quickly interpreted the data as confirmation that the disinflation trend remains intact. The USD weakened in the short term, while gold and non-dollar assets rebounded.
The reaction in rates markets has been particularly telling. Fed funds futures show renewed upside in rate-cut pricing for next year, with market focus now extending further out along the curve. Current pricing implies an additional ~300 bps of easing by the end of 2026, signaling that capital is already positioning for a longer-cycle easing narrative. Several strategists note that if inflation and employment continue to soften in tandem, internal Fed debates are likely to tilt more decisively dovish.
That said, initial jobless claims declined to 224,000, indicating the labor market has not yet entered a disorderly downturn. This tempers expectations for aggressive near-term cuts. The macro backdrop increasingly resembles a mix of “cooling inflation + stabilizing but soft labor,” suggesting future policy shifts will be guided by pace management rather than rapid easing.
Bitunix Analyst View:
From a practical standpoint, markets have begun anchoring pricing around medium- to long-term rate declines. For crypto and broader risk assets, three signals matter most going forward:
whether the yield curve continues a bullish steepening, confirming long-end capital inflows;
whether USD rebounds lack follow-through, enabling capital rotation;
whether cooling inflation and softening employment reinforce each other.
Under this framework, price action is more likely to evolve through “pullback accumulation and rising ranges,” rather than a sharp one-way trend.
