Chainfeeds Summary:
2025 will not be a bull market, but a brutal selection process. Those who remain will either learn to find opportunities in real needs or learn to explain the complexities of the world clearly.
Article source:
https://x.com/0xJeff/status/2001886024725918160
Article Author:
0xJeff
Opinion:
0xJeff: The pace of narrative rotation has accelerated significantly—narratives that used to last for weeks or even months now often only live for a few days. The market (especially CT) is shifting from "storytelling" to real fundamentals: user numbers, revenue, growth metrics, and whether there is a clear and credible value capture path between the business and the token. In 2025, confusion surrounding the relationship between equity and tokens frequently erupted: Pumpfun's acquisition of the trading tool Padre left PADRE token holders in an information black box, causing the token to plummet by 50%–80%, triggering a strong backlash. Circle's acquisition of Axelar similarly failed to provide a clear explanation to AXL token holders, leading to a token drop and intense community sentiment. These events brought a long-neglected question back to the forefront: what do tokens actually represent? With limited on-chain liquidity and the market focusing more on fundamentals and buyback mechanisms, tokenized securities are beginning to enter the practical implementation stage. On December 11th, the SEC issued a no-action letter, explicitly stating that it would not take enforcement action against DTCC's DTC's pilot project involving tokenized Russell 1000 stocks, US Treasuries, and major ETFs. This pilot will operate within a compliant framework for a maximum period of three years (expected to launch in the second half of 2026), focusing activities on regulated infrastructure rather than a fully decentralized path. This means that from 2026 onwards, the market will see more compliant tokenized stocks and securities, further connecting TradeFi and DeFi. In 2025, various "fun + profitable" consumer products will emerge: Pumpfun, Virtuals, Zora (content token), collectibles, fantasy sports, prediction markets, and perpetual contract trading platforms. Looking at the core data, this is almost the PMF of crypto: prediction markets have a weekly trading volume of $3.8 billion, and perpetual contracts have a weekly trading volume of $340 billion (a record high monthly trading volume of $1.3 trillion). This explains the immense popularity of projects like Hyperliquid, Lighter, Aster, and Polymarket, with extremely high expectations for airdrops. The conclusion is simple: either invest in these platforms or become an active participant. Learn to build perps, utilize prediction markets, and participate in consumer products—this is where your competitive advantage lies. [Original text in English]
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