BTC: Orange's Mute Group (Daily Market Analysis) Community Discussion Summary (09:00:06 ~ 10:00:06)

1. Current Recommended Direction - Short-term outlook for BTC: Bearish. A significant drop to the $60,000-$65,000 range is expected in the first half of 2026, with substantial downward pressure. A rebound is anticipated by the end of the year, making it suitable for tentative entry on dips. - Long-term outlook: Bullish. Citi's target price is $143,000. Arthur Hayes predicts a potential surge to $200,000 by late 2026, emphasizing that the Fed's "reserve management purchases," similar to QE, will drive up BTC. 2. Position and Risk Management Recommendations - Light positions or trial trades are recommended for the first half of 2026, focusing on mitigating the risk of a sharp decline. Gradually add to positions on dips, positioning for a year-end rebound. - Key price level: $60,000-$65,000 is the bottom support area; a break below this level increases the risk. Profit-taking in stages is advisable during rebounds. - Risk management: Establish reasonable stop-loss orders to avoid chasing highs and pay attention to regulatory and macroeconomic policy catalysts. 3. Suitable for Various Trading Styles - Suitable for conservative medium-term and trend investors, combining regulatory certainty with traditional market trends for strategic positioning. - Short-term aggressive traders can utilize pullbacks and rebounds for quick entry and exit, but should pay attention to risk control and avoid holding positions for too long. - Monitor the progress of cryptocurrency ETF approvals, Federal Reserve policy developments, and catalysts for institutional entry, leveraging technological innovations (zero-knowledge proofs, AI + blockchain) to grasp medium- to long-term trends.