Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) saw whale accumulation as the price fell below $0.01, but market-wide selling pressure remained dominant and determined the short-term trend.
After being rejected around $0.03, PENGU moved within a descending channel and remained below the key EMAs. The prolonged weakness created a “discount” price zone, attracting large holders, but volume data suggests that selling pressure remains very strong.
- PENGU maintains a downtrend as it remains below the 20/50/100/200 EMA and trades around $0.0092.
- Whales began accumulating after the price broke below $0.01, including a large withdrawal from Binance, according to Onchain Lens .
- Sell Volume has increased sharply, and the DMI indicator shows that downward momentum remains dominant. A scenario of a drop to $0.0084 remains open unless the $0.01 level is recovered.
PENGU is stuck in a downtrend below the EMA lines.
PENGU has been in a downtrend channel for nearly two months, consistently trading below the EMA 20, 50, 100, and 200, reflecting that the bearish structure remains dominant.
After being rejected around $0.03, the price slid further and failed to reclaim any key EMA lines. At the time of writing, PENGU was trading around $0.0092 and remained below a key technical zone for the third consecutive day.
Being below multiple EMAs simultaneously often means that rallies may encounter supply at moving Medium levels, requiring stronger and more sustained buying pressure to reverse the trend. In this context, the $0.01 and EMA20 ($0.0104) levels become crucial reaction points for buyers.
Pudgy Penguins whales begin buying at local Dip .
After PENGU fell below $0.01, data showed that some whales shifted from selling to accumulating, taking advantage of the low price to buy up shares.
Spot Average Order Size data from CryptoQuant shows that "whale" sized orders dominated activity during the downtrend. However, for much of the preceding month, large orders were primarily on the sell side, contributing to sustained downward pressure.
This pattern changed when PENGU fell below $0.01. According to Onchain Lens , a whale withdrew 272,201,182 PENGU from Binance, worth approximately $2.52 million.
Over the past two weeks, this same address has accumulated approximately 273.08 million PENGU, valued at nearly $2.55 million. These figures describe long-term accumulation rather than momentum-driven trading.
Nansen data shows that large holder account for approximately 66% of the PENGU supply. During the same period of price decline, their total balance still increased by 5.52%, reinforcing the signal of strategic accumulation rather than chasing the price.
Selling pressure remains dominant despite whale buying activity.
Despite whales switching to buying, the rest of the market continued to sell heavily with Sell Volume reaching 681.35 million, causing the downward trend to continue to prevail.
The increase in Sell Volume to 681.35 million indicates intense selling pressure and implies that whale buying is insufficient to absorb all the selling. Therefore, a sustainable price rebound is unlikely without further capital inflow.
Simultaneously, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) showed a positive index, falling to 14.16, reflecting a sharp downward trend. When momentum indicators react in this direction, the market typically shows that sellers are strongly defending a technical zone.
Consequently, if buying pressure fails to push PENGU back above $0.01, a continued bearish scenario is XEM more likely. Conversely, a positive market reaction to the accumulation phase could create a technical rebound, but this still needs confirmation by reclaiming key levels.
Key price levels to watch: $0.0104, $0.013, and $0.0084
The $0.0104 level (EMA20) is a confirmation point for a short-term recovery; breaking above this level could pave the way to $0.013, while a failure could drag the price back down to $0.0084.
If the market responds positively to whale buying, PENGU could close above the EMA20 at $0.0104, thereby reducing the risk of the “danger zone” below $0.01. In that case, the near-term recovery target would be $0.013, laying the groundwork for a stronger upward move.
Conversely, if attempts to push the price up fail and selling pressure continues to dominate, PENGU could slide to $0.0084. In this scenario, traders typically monitor XEM new buying pressure emerges at lower levels, rather than relying solely on a few large buys from whales.
Final assessment
Whale accumulation suggests demand is emerging around a local Dip , but the direction of PENGU still depends on whether sustained demand is sufficient to overcome the ongoing selling momentum.
on-chain data and exit behavior suggest that a large segment of holder are choosing to accumulate at "discounted" prices. However, high sell Volume and bearish momentum signals from the DMI emphasize that sellers are still controlling the market's pace.
In the short term, $0.01 and the EMA20 ($0.0104) are crucial test zones: a breakout above these levels would provide a basis for a recovery to $0.013. Otherwise, the risk of the price returning to $0.0084 remains.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is PENGU still XEM to be in a downtrend?
Because PENGU has been in a downtrend channel for nearly two months and trading below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA lines, and has not yet convincingly reclaimed the $0.01 mark.
What data suggests that whales are accumulating PENGU?
According to Onchain Lens , a whale withdrew 272,201,182 PENGU from Binance (approximately $2.52 million) and accumulated around 273.08 million PENGU (nearly $2.55 million) in two weeks.
What threshold needs to be surpassed for PENGU to reduce the risk of a sharp decline?
PENGU needs to close above the EMA20 around $0.0104 and maintain above $0.01, as this is the area that could help the price escape the "danger zone" and open up opportunities to reach $0.013.
What was the most recent price reduction scenario mentioned?
If whale buying isn't strong enough to reverse the trend and selling pressure continues to dominate, PENGU could fall further to $0.0084.
