Analysis: Following the crash on October 11th, an epic distribution of Bitcoin to long-term holders has significantly altered the BTC cost structure.

According to Mars Finance, on December 22nd, on-chain data analyst Murphy considered the October 11th crash as the starting point of this round of decline. His analysis of the significant changes in BTC's cost structure over the past two months is as follows: The largest accumulation range for BTC is between $80,000 and $90,000, totaling 2.536 million coins, an increase of 1.874 million coins compared to October 11th, making it the strongest support range to date. This is followed by the $90,000 to $100,000 range (an increase of 324,000 coins), and the $100,000 to $110,000 range (an increase of 87,000 coins). Using the current BTC price as the midline, there are 6.168 million coins with floating losses above and 7.462 million coins with floating profits below. Excluding Satoshi Nakamoto and long-lost BTC, the current cost structure is almost at a balance. From the October 11th crash to December 20th, the number of profitable positions below decreased by 1.33 million coins, and the number of trapped positions above with a cost basis above $110,000 decreased by 902,000 coins. The number of BTC held at a cost of $100,000 to $110,000 has actually increased by 87,000. Many top-level holders have taken losses during this decline, leaving the rest holdings. Profit-taking is rampant, driven by the four-year cycle theory, macroeconomic uncertainties, and market concerns such as the quantum threat, prompting long-term holders to engage in an epic distribution. The largest number of BTC sold are held at a cost of $60,000 to $70,000, mostly accumulated before the 2024 US presidential election, now being liquidated as profits have significantly retreated. Currently, the $70,000 to $80,000 range is a relatively "vacant" area, with only 190,000 BTC remaining. Very few market participants hold BTC at this price; if the price falls to this range, it may attract a large influx of new liquidity, thus providing support.