Original article | Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author | Asher ( @Asher_0210 )
Prediction markets have been a hot topic in the community recently. Besides Polymarket and Kalshi, prediction markets within the BNB Chain ecosystem are also growing rapidly. According to Dune data , looking at the transaction volume of the three major prediction video platforms in the BNB Chain ecosystem yesterday, Opinion currently leads by a wide margin with a market share of 75% and a transaction volume of $125 million. Probable, backed by the PancakeSwap team, follows with a market share of 14.5% and a transaction volume of $24 million. Predict.fun, founded by dingaling, ranks third with a market share of 10.5% and a transaction volume of $17 million.
BNB Chain Ecosystem Forecast Market Share (December 22)
BNB Chain Ecosystem Predicted Market Transaction Volume (December 22)
Below, Odaily Odaily will introduce you to three prediction market platforms in the BNB Chain ecosystem that have received investment from YZi Labs: Opinion, predict.fun, and Probable.
Opinion: The leading prediction market player in the BNB Chain ecosystem, launched its Christmas & New Year points event yesterday.
Opinion is the first prediction market platform in the BNB Chain ecosystem. According to ROOTDATA , Opinion announced the completion of a $5 million seed round of financing on March 18th of this year. This round was led by YZi Labs, with participation from echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold, Amber Group, and others. Furthermore, Opinion was one of the four best-performing projects in Binance Labs' MVB program.
Points Rules
Opinion points are awarded weekly, with a total of 100,000 points awarded each week , according to the following rules:
1. Transaction volume requirement: Only transactions of ≥ 200U per week (and single orders ≥ 10U) can earn points.
2. Holding period: The larger the position and the longer the holding period, the higher the score.
3. Liquidity Orders (Limit Orders): Limit orders with an amount of ≥ 10U will earn points; the longer the order is placed and the closer the price is to the bid-ask spread, the more points you earn; limit orders have 0 transaction fees and are weighted towards points, making them the most stable way to earn points (market orders charge around 2% transaction fees).
4. Transaction volume and transaction fees: The larger the transaction volume, the more transaction fees are contributed, and the more points are earned.
Christmas & New Year Points Event
Yesterday (December 22nd), Opinion announced on its X platform the launch of a Christmas & New Year points event, with details as follows:
- Event Rewards: A total of 100,000 points;
- Event period: December 22, 2020 to January 5, 2026, lasting two weeks;
- Points can be earned as follows: Daily Warriors: 20,000 points (more than 3 trades per day for more than 10 days); Volume Kings: 20,000 points (daily trading volume of more than $2,000 for more than 10 days); Binance Wallet Elite: 10,000 points (cumulative trading volume of more than $2,000 during the promotion period); Diamond Hands: 20,000 points; Mystery Finale: 30,000 points.
In addition, here are a few points to note regarding how to earn points:
- Diamond Hands Rewards: Distributed based on the time-weighted open positions of all users during the event period, with data sourced from periodic platform snapshots;
- Daily Warriors and Volume Kings Rewards: Wallets that meet the corresponding daily transaction threshold for at least 10 days during the event period will share the corresponding rewards.
- Binance Wallet Elite Rewards: During the promotion period, users who complete a cumulative transaction volume of > $2,000 through Binance Wallet will share a reward. This reward requires a keyless address or a newly imported wallet; older wallets already registered with OPINION are not eligible.
predict.fun: Founded by dingaling, a well-known figure in the NFT field, the first week's points event will end tonight at 10 PM.
predict.fun is a prediction market platform launched on the BNB Chain, founded by dingaling, a well-known figure in the NFT field. Unlike traditional prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, predict.fun achieves a key innovation: funds used by users to participate in predictions are no longer idle, but can generate additional income during the prediction period.
On December 17th, dingaling, the founder of predict.fun, announced on the X platform that the platform has officially launched and airdropped initial points to Meme traders on the BNB Chain, Aster participants, and active users in various prediction markets. ( For more interactive tutorials, please read: A Step-by-Step Guide to Participating in predict.fun, Backed by CZ )
Today, predict.fun officially announced on the X platform that the first week's points event will end at 10 PM Beijing time tonight . Three days later, prediction points and other additional airdrop rewards will be credited to users' personal accounts, and the leaderboard will also be updated. Furthermore, the second week's points event will begin immediately after the first week ends.
Probable: A prediction market incubated by PancakeSwap, with an upcoming points system.
On December 16th, PancakeSwap announced the launch of Probable, a full-chain prediction market platform incubated by PancakeSwap (the platform language can be switched to Simplified Chinese). The project is jointly supported by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs and will be exclusively deployed on the BNB Chain. PancakeSwap stated that Probable is an independent project, and its team will advance product implementation and ecosystem expansion with the support of PancakeSwap and YZi Labs.
According to its introduction, Probable is positioned as a user-centric on-chain prediction platform, emphasizing zero transaction fees, full on-chain settlement, and a simplified user experience. Initially, the platform will not charge prediction fees, leveraging BNB Chain's low-cost and high-performance infrastructure to support users in predicting cryptocurrency trends, global events, sporting events, and certain regional markets.
At the mechanism level, Probable uses UMA's Optimistic Oracle as its event adjudication tool, employing a dispute-based verification method to confirm results, thereby enhancing the transparency and censorship resistance of the prediction market. Furthermore, users can deposit any token, which the system will automatically convert into USDT on the BNB Chain for participation in predictions, lowering the barrier to entry.
Currently, the Probable points system is not yet online. According to official information, a brand-new points system is coming soon, and points will be calculated based on users' transaction volume. The backend has already begun to count and accumulate users' current transaction volume.
