Merry Christmas ! But the Christmas rally in the crypto market seems to have failed to materialize this year. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading sideways between $87,000 and $88,000, while Ethereum (ETH) has fallen below $2,900, with the price chart resembling a continuously extending channel. Holiday liquidity constraints, pressure from the 26-day options settlement, and leverage clearing following the October surge to $126,000 have all contributed to the low volatility expected this Christmas.
Jin Tianbo, let's bring liquidity and options together!
BTC has been stuck in the $86,500 to $89,000 range for the past three days. With Western markets entering the Christmas holiday season, most market makers are on break, resulting in a sharp drop in trading volume. On the other hand, two large options contracts expiring on December 26th and at the end of December are nearing their end, with both long and short positions close to equilibrium. No one is willing to push the price up early, leading to a six-month low in trading volume.
On-chain data has become more subdued, with the number of active addresses down 22% from the October peak, while long-term holders continue to increase their holdings. However, this "cold on the surface, hot at the core" structure should be noted, as it may be the start of the next trend.
pullback of 30%
From its high of $126,000, Bitcoin has now fallen by about 30%. Historically, crypto bull markets have typically experienced corrections of 25% to 35% to squeeze out highly leveraged and short-term positions.
We wouldn't say the bull market is still going strong; in fact, the crypto bull-bear cycle has already begun to be debated. Bitwise, a crypto asset management company, argues that this downturn has washed away the overpriced "Trump policy benefits" of October and brought funding rates in the futures market back to neutral. In an environment lacking leverage interference, the influence of spot buying on prices is becoming more pronounced.
ETFs Speak: The "Institutional Era" is Taking Shape
The real change is brewing in traditional financial products. In 2026 alone, Bitcoin ETFs could absorb more than the total new supply for the entire year. We are entering an institutional era, and ETFs will have a greater appetite than mining output. This is an asset allocation need, not a retail investor frenzy.
Grayscale Research's 2026 Outlook also put forward a similar view, believing that safe-haven demand, the integration of stablecoins with traditional finance, and the implementation of the US "CLARITY Act" could all push Bitcoin to the $130,000 to $150,000 range. The core behind these predictions is the same thing: with the opening of compliant channels, long-term funds can finally enter the market on a large scale. At least after the spillover from stocks, crypto assets have already taken center stage in asset allocation.
What a boring Christmas. Maybe it's the last chance for a discount?
When short-term traders leave due to boredom, volatility decreases, indicating that Bitcoin is moving further away from its speculative positioning and its price action is increasingly resembling that of a mature asset. This is bad news for those seeking to double their money, but for long-term investors, it means that entry costs are manageable.
If the Bitwise-Grayscale deal comes to fruition, the period of utter silence during Christmas 2025 will be remembered as "the final clearance sale before institutional investors take over."
$87,000 for Bitcoin may not be very exciting, but it gives those who really want to hold it for the long term a chance to get on board.
The above is not investment advice.
