Compiled by: Cognitive Alchemy
In mid-to-late November 2025 , Luke Gromen , a macro analyst who has long been bullish on Bitcoin and gold , sold off the vast majority of his Bitcoin holdings — not a complete sell-off, but a clear phase of reducing his holdings , which sparked considerable discussion in the market.
Yesterday, in his final video released in 2025 , Luke systematically explained the thought process behind this decision for the first time.
He wasn't just talking about Bitcoin, but a whole set of interconnected judgments: why to remain cautious about Bitcoin in the short term, why to remain bullish on precious metals, and how he understands the emerging " multipolar world . "
These seemingly disparate viewpoints actually point to the same issue: the macroeconomic environment we are familiar with is changing.
Over the past thirty years, in the US market, the Treasury market has won, Wall Street has won, and financial asset holders have won; while manufacturing, industrial capacity, and the working class have been squeezed for a long time.
Starting in 2025 , as geopolitical competition, supply chain security, and industrial base once again become hard constraints, the US government's policy objective function is being forced to change.
We are leaving a world where "finance takes precedence" and entering a world where "realpolitik returns."
You are perfectly free to disagree with Luke's assessment of Bitcoin's short-term trend — it's not a black-and-white question. However, this macroeconomic signal deserves serious consideration from all long-term investors:
This world is no longer a world where " financial assets are naturally at a disadvantage " .
For this reason, it is necessary to remind us of something that is often overlooked: long-term investing does not mean that you have to be in the market at every stage.
Sometimes, true long-term success means knowing when to step back, preserving your judgment, and preventing short-term fluctuations from forcing you to make irreversible choices at the wrong time.
If these discussions help you to view the market more calmly in the coming period, then they have accomplished their purpose.
The rest is up to you to find your own rhythm.
The following content is a translation of the original text from Luke 's video, and I hope it will inspire you.
Original video translation
This is my last public video update in 2025 .
To be honest, this year has been quite tiring; sometimes it feels like I'm " getting old like a dog . " But precisely because of this, I want to clarify some key judgments, rather than leaving more misunderstandings.
One of the most frequently asked questions lately is: Why did you sell most of your Bitcoin in such a short period of time?
Let me make the most important point clear first: I have not sold off my entire Bitcoin holdings . I remain bullish on it in the long term .
However, over the past month or so, I did sell the majority of my holdings , not because of emotions or prices, but because my judgment on the " sequence " had changed.
I. What did I see correctly, and what did I see incorrectly?
I have long believed that Bitcoin is the last remaining " liquidity smokescreen " functioning properly in the global financial system . It's often the first to sound the alarm when liquidity begins to tighten. This has been repeatedly proven over the past few years.
But I must also admit one thing: my previous assessment of Bitcoin's role in a " deflationary environment " was wrong.
I initially thought that during deflation, it would act more like a " neutral reserve asset . " But reality has shown me that when deflation truly arrives, Bitcoin's trading behavior is more like that of a high- beta tech stock .
This is not a matter of stance, it is a matter of fact.
II. Why does Bitcoin become vulnerable during deflation?
The reason is actually very simple, but many people are unwilling to look at it from this perspective.
We are now in a highly leveraged global economic system . In such a system, any asset can be understood within the framework of " capital structure " .
When liquidity is ample and asset prices rise , the equity layer at the bottom of the capital structure performs best.
When deflation occurs , the privileged class is the first and most severely affected.
In 2008 , the equity layer of CDOs and CLOs disappeared in this way.
I am now increasingly convinced that Bitcoin, in the current system, is precisely the " equity layer " .
This is not to belittle it, but rather a realistic assessment of its current position.
Third, what truly changed my judgment was AI and robots.
If it were just a normal economic downturn, I probably wouldn't sell.
What truly made me re-examine the order was seeing AI and robots creating an " exponential " deflationary force .
This round of deflation has three characteristics:
It stems from technological efficiency, not demand cycles. It has begun to have a substantial impact on employment, especially for young people. It spread very quickly.
In this environment, any policy below " nuclear-level money printing " is effectively a tightening measure.
In a tightening environment, who will be the first to feel the pressure? It will be the privileged class.
This is the core reason why I became cautious about Bitcoin in the short term and sold most of my positions.
Fourth, I am not denying Bitcoin, but rather correcting the "chronological order".
I still believe that deflation will eventually trigger a crisis, and that crisis will most likely force a truly large-scale monetary response.
But I now believe that this step won't come so quickly .
Frankly, I overestimated the speed of the policy response. I thought they would act sooner, but they didn't, and I don't think they will act anytime soon.
So for me, it's a matter of sequence: before the policy really shifts, before a " nuclear-level response " emerges, I'd rather leave the most vulnerable layer of the capital structure first, and come back after prices have more fully reflected reality.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm " overly calculating . " But this is my most honest judgment at the moment.
5. So why do I prefer to hold silver?
The value of silver is not an emotional judgment, but a structural judgment.
What I see is that industrial demand is rising continuously, but the supply side has almost no capacity to expand rapidly. Even if prices rise, it is difficult to quickly form an effective supply response.
Unless we destroy demand with a deep recession. But if that happens, the world will return to the " crisis - money printing " path even faster.
From this perspective, the logic behind silver is more direct and simpler.
VI. Behind this lies a larger structural change.
What I want to clarify this time is not just about Bitcoin or silver.
What I really want to say is that we are leaving a world where " finance takes precedence " and entering a world where " realpolitik returns . "
Over the past three decades: the Treasury market has won, Wall Street has won, and financial asset holders have won; while manufacturing, industrial capacity, and the working class have been squeezed for a long time.
Now, with national competition, supply chain security, and industrial base once again becoming hard constraints, the policy objective function is being forced to change.
This doesn't mean a idyllic, low-interest-rate, weak-dollar utopia. It's more likely to be a more unstable, more frictional, less " elegant ," but also more real world.
In conclusion: All I can do is explain what I've seen.
I know these judgments aren't popular, especially when emotions are still highly optimistic.
But I always believe that it is more important to explain the logic clearly than to make people feel comfortable.
I still respect the long-term significance of Bitcoin and am still preparing for that " real turning point " .
For now, I've chosen to stand aside and see where this round of deflation is really headed.
This is the most honest explanation I can give at the end of 2025 .
