Author: Hotcoin Research
Crypto market performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.95 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.1%, or $1.74 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $318.4 billion, a decrease of 0.28% in the last 7 days, marking another week of negative growth for stablecoins. USDT accounts for 60.54% of this market capitalization.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap , most declined and a few rose. Specifically: BTC fell 1.4% in 7 days, ETH fell 1.89% in 7 days, SOL fell 2.84% in 7 days, NIGHT rose 22.03% in 7 days, and H rose 28.88% in 7 days.
This week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $589 million; the US Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $80.3 million.
Market Forecast (December 29 - January 2):
The current RSI is 51.46 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 22 (lower than last week, generally in the fear range), and the Alternative Season Index is 37 (neutral, unchanged from last week).
The core driver of the recent market trend is the leverage cleansing under conditions of scarce liquidity.
Event-driven: Around Christmas Eve (December 24th), the market experienced a flash crash without any major negative news. Bitcoin plummeted by $2,300 in 45 minutes, triggering over $66 million in long position liquidations. This reveals that during the holiday season, market depth is insufficient, making it highly susceptible to sharp fluctuations caused by large orders or leveraged liquidations.
Funding: As mentioned before, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to record net outflows before the holiday, weakening the support of institutional buying and making the market more fragile.
Technical Analysis: All three major assets are currently consolidating above key support levels. Whether BTC can hold above $85,000, whether ETH can stabilize around $2,900, and whether SOL can maintain above $120 are key indicators of whether the market can stop falling.
BTC core range: $83,000-$89,000
ETH core range: $2,750-$3,050
SOL Core Range: $115-$130
As shown in the chart, the current realized profit margin (SOPR) for long-term Bitcoin holders is 1.53. In a typical bull market environment, this figure is in the low range; in a bear market, it is at a neutral level, far from reaching the lowest point of the most panicked bear market.
The macroeconomic landscape surrounding this market movement has undergone a fundamental shift: cryptocurrencies are moving from being restricted by many countries around the world to gaining legislative recognition in mainstream markets such as the United States; and market dominance has gradually shifted from early miners to large institutions on Wall Street.
Faced with a completely new market structure, we should neither simply apply the old "four-year cycle" theory nor blindly continue with a bull market mentality. Looking ahead to 2026, the market will simultaneously present both dangers and opportunities:
The danger lies in the fact that, historically, the traditional bear market window has already opened.
The opportunity lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely to enter a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to inject global liquidity continuously; at the same time, asset management institutions and listed companies are still increasing their holdings, providing solid structural buying for the market.
Therefore, even if the market enters a correction phase, its duration is likely to be shorter, and the bottom will find strong support. Based on this, we boldly predict that the bottom price range of this bear market cycle will be between $50,000 and $60,000.
Understanding the present
Review of the week's major events
1. On December 21st, in response to the "50 million USDT phishing attack," the Ethereum Community Foundation issued a statement on the X platform, urging a halt to the practice of truncating addresses with ellipses (e.g., 0xbaf4b1aF...B6495F8b5). Address information needs to be displayed in its entirety; hiding the middle part of the address creates unnecessary risks. Currently, some UI options provided by certain wallets and block explorers also have security issues, which can actually be resolved.
2. On December 24th, according to market data, US stocks continued their upward trend, with the S&P 500 index approaching 6900 points, less than 10 points away from its all-time closing record. Additionally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.18% intraday, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.27%.
3. On Friday, December 24th, approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, marking the largest options expiration date in Bitcoin's history. Analysis indicates that this expiration date is exceptionally large and generally bullish. The maximum pain point (the price level at which option buyers incur the greatest loss and sellers the greatest profit) is $96,000, which will reinforce the upward price trend.
4. On December 24, according to Cointelegraph, Aave founder Stani Kulechov has recently faced scrutiny for spending over $10 million to buy AAVE tokens. Some members of the crypto community believe that this move was intended to increase his voting power in a key governance proposal.
5. On December 25th, the market capitalization of USD1 surpassed $3 billion, reaching $3.011 billion, a 7.68% increase in 24 hours. Previously, Binance launched a USD1 flexible investment product with an annualized yield of up to 20%.
6. On December 26, 2025, the number of blockchain-related mentions in U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings surged throughout 2025, reaching approximately 8,000 in August and remaining high in November. Bitcoin-related mentions dominated this growth, accounting for the largest share of filing activity. Filings and amendments for Bitcoin spot ETFs increased, and traditional asset management companies continued to expand their cryptocurrency products in 2025.
Macroeconomics
1. On December 24, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending December 20 was 214,000, compared to an expected 224,000;
2. On December 23, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, following the release of today's US macroeconomic data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen to 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 86.7%. Last week, the probability of a Fed rate cut in January had risen to 31%. The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the third quarter, adjusted for inflation, recorded 4.3%, with US GDP growth surging and marking the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2023. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate until March next year is 54.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 40.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 4.9%.
ETF
According to statistics, from December 22nd to 26th, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $589 million. As of December 26th, GBTC (Grayscale) experienced a total outflow of $25.14 billion, currently holding $14.504 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $67.652 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $116.673 billion.
Net outflow from the US Ethereum spot ETF : $80.3 million.
Predicting the future
Project progress
1. The blockchain game ChronoForge announced on Twitter that it will cease operations on December 30th, citing "numerous obstacles," including a shortage of funds. This forced the founders to personally fund development since July and lay off 80% of the staff. "After discussions with the Rift Foundation, we believe it is impossible to sustain the operation of the game or token. ChronoForge will cease operations on December 30, 2025."
2. WLFI announced that the zero-fee USD1 transaction activity in the BNB ecosystem has been extended to December 31st, allowing users to transfer, withdraw, and cross-chain USDC and USD1 with zero fees on CEXs, wallets, and cross-chain bridges;
3. BYEX is about to cease operations; users must transfer their assets out before December 31st.
4. Rabby Wallet announced that the backend API for Rabby Desktop will cease service on December 31st. This change will not affect user assets, which remain fully secure and accessible through Rabby plugins.
5. StarkWare has launched a $1 million OP_CAT research fund to support research into the advantages and disadvantages of activating OP_CAT on Bitcoin. The deadline for submitting research proposals is January 1, 2025.
Important events
1. FTX's fourth round of compensation is expected to begin in January 2026, with the deadline for eligibility confirmation possibly in December, but the specific timing will depend on an official announcement;
2. Turkmenistan's legislation regulating crypto assets will take effect on January 1st. This legislation will help attract investment and promote digitalization. The legislation covers a regulatory framework for the creation, storage, issuance, use, and circulation of virtual assets within Turkmenistan, and clarifies their legal and economic status.
3. The Basel Committee plans to implement a risk disclosure framework for banks' crypto assets on January 1, 2026, which includes a set of standardized public forms and templates covering the risks of banks' crypto assets. These disclosures aim to improve information availability and support market discipline;
4. Switzerland's Act on Automatic Exchange of Tax Information Covering Crypto-Assets is expected to come into effect on January 1, 2026. This expansion means that financial institutions will be required to collect and report customer information related to crypto-assets.
5. The UK government will implement new crypto tax regulations from January 2026, cracking down on tax evasion. According to the guidelines, crypto exchage operating in the UK must begin collecting detailed transaction records and complete information from all UK clients. HMRC will use the collected data to cross-check users' tax returns to ensure tax compliance, and violators will face sanctions. Furthermore, the UK's new guidelines are aligned with the OECD's crypto asset reporting framework to improve transparency in the digital asset market.
6. HM Revenue and Customs requires crypto companies to report every customer transaction from 2026 onwards. Users who fail to comply or report inaccurately may be fined up to £300 ($398.40) per user.
7. On January 3, the United States will release the number of initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending December 27.
Token unlocking
1. Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million tokens on December 28, worth approximately $10.7 million, representing 1.73% of the circulating supply.
2. Kamino (KMNO) will unlock 230 million tokens on December 30, worth approximately $11.69 million, representing 5.35% of the circulating supply.
3. EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on January 1st, worth approximately $14.31 million, representing 9.74% of the circulating supply.
4. Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on January 2nd, worth approximately $8.64 million, representing 0.56% of the circulating supply;
about Us
Hotcoin Research, the core research arm of the Hotcoin exchange , is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. We analyze market trends through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; and our exclusive "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening) helps you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also host live streams to discuss hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate market cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
