Opinion: Be wary of a "sell-the-news" scenario after the new Fed chair takes office; uncertainty is expected to surge between July and November.

[Opinion: Beware of "Sell the News" After the New Fed Chair Takes Office; Uncertainty to Concentrate Between July and November] Mars Finance reports that on December 29th, Nomura Securities issued a warning, predicting that after the new Fed chair takes office in May next year, he will lead a rate cut in June. However, with the US economic recovery, there may be strong internal opposition to further rate cuts within the Fed. Policy disagreements will not only weaken market confidence in the new chair but may also trigger tensions between the Fed and the Trump administration. If the Fed maintains interest rates after the June meeting, friction with Trump, who demands further rate cuts to boost his midterm election campaign, will be inevitable. Nomura predicts that uncertainty will concentrate between July and November next year, at which time the market may see a "fleeing of US assets," leading to a decline in US Treasury yields, a correction in US stocks, and a weaker dollar. Investors need to be wary of a possible liquidity reversal during this period, as major global economies may also stop cutting rates or even begin a rate hike cycle, thereby weakening the relative advantage of dollar assets. The policy deadlock, coupled with bottoming out of inflation and signals from the Fed ending its rate-cutting cycle, will exacerbate market volatility.