A newly created wallet withdrew 7,714 ZEC (approximately $4.12 million) from Kraken in a single session, tightening supply on the exchange and easing immediate selling pressure, while the price held firm against heavy Short positions in the Derivative market.
Notably, the withdrawals were carried out in coordinated batches, suggesting a planned accumulation strategy. While prices haven't reacted immediately, the market structure suggests a risk of "position squeezing" as Derivative are heavily skewed towards the selling side.
- A new wallet withdrew 7,714 ZEC (approximately $4.12 million) from Kraken in batches, tightening the supply on the exchange.
- ZEC has formed a rounded Dip and is testing the 520–550 resistance zone; the next key level is 680–720.
- The overwhelming proportion of Short positions, with significantly higher Short liquidation rates compared to Longing , and stable funding create conditions for increased volatility when Short are squeezed.
The outflow of 7,714 ZEC from Kraken tightened supply on the exchange.
A newly created wallet withdrew 7,714 ZEC (approximately $4.12 million) from Kraken in batches, reducing the available supply on the exchange even though the price did not react immediately.
This wallet has no prior activity, so the potential for short-term "surfing" is significantly reduced. Synchronized batch withdrawals typically reflect deliberate execution, rather than random withdrawals.
The withdrawal transaction data shows that the market absorbed the flow without creating an immediate price shock, implying that Derivative is thick enough to "swallow" the flow. However, the structural impact lies in the fact that the amount of ZEC on the exchange decreased, thereby weakening the immediate selling pressure.
Historically, similar ZEC net outflows have often preceded delayed rallies rather than immediate vertical surges. This divergence makes the current spot market behavior contradictory to the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in Derivative.
The rounded Dip pattern is tightening just below the key resistance zone.
ZEC has repeatedly defended the 300–320 demand zone, forming a rounded Dip after a prolonged downtrend, and is currently testing the 520–550 resistance level, trading around 536.
The 300–320 zone was repeatedly tested, suggesting exhaustion of the downtrend rather than a short technical rebound. From this base, the price successively recovered 401 and then surpassed 528, consolidating the structure of a higher Dip .
At the time of observation, ZEC was near 536 and pressed into the 520–550 range, coinciding with the previous breakout structure and short-term supply. However, the corrections were shallow, indicating that selling pressure was controlled rather than panicked.
Above, the major resistance "neckline" is located at 680–720. If this area is recaptured, the continuing scenario could head towards the psychological mark of 800.
Momentum also improves as the MACD turns positive and the histogram widens, reinforcing the recovery signal.
Short positions remain dominant even though the price hasn't broken the Dip.
Binance's ZEC perpetual data shows that 65.35% of accounts are Short and 34.65% are Longing (Longing/ Short Ratio 0.53), but the price is maintaining a higher Dip instead of falling further.
Binance's Longing/ Short ratio typically reflects bearish expectations when Short positions are clearly dominant. However, ZEC refused to fall below the levels it had reclaimed, suggesting the risk lies in "positioning" rather than trend belief.
Notably, Short sellers continued to increase their exposure but failed to force the price to close below 401. When pessimistic pressure proved ineffective, each failed breakout intensified Short positions over time.
As a result, market dynamics could shift from trend-following selling to risking being forced to close positions, especially when spot trading continues to signal decreasing supply on the exchange.
The liquidation of ZEC indicates a rapid increase in tension among Short sellers.
Liquidation data shows a clear discrepancy: $1.77 million worth of Short were liquidated, while only $182,000 Longing were liquidated, indicating that sellers faced significant pressure even as prices rose slightly.
Liquidation data shows Binance contributed $967,260 in Short liquidations, while Hyperliquid contributed $411,730. These liquidation clusters occurred when the price edged up to the 535–540 range, not during a strong breakout.
This detail is important because it reflects the "pain threshold" of low Short : even a small price movement is enough to trigger forced closing. Conversely, Longing positions can withstand corrections without being swept away.
When prices stabilize but Short are continuously eroded, the probability of an upward price movement may be higher, as buying pressure arises from closing Short rather than from leveraged speculation.
Stable funding indicates that the upward momentum is not driven by leverage.
ZEC 's open interest (OI) funding rate remains stable around +0.0027%, indicating a gradual weakening of the bears, but there is no sign of excessive leveraged Longing positions.
Open interest (OI) - Weighted Funding Rates recovered from their previous deep negative levels in December. This shift typically implies a weakening of the pessimistic trend, but there are no signs of overheating that would make the market vulnerable to a reversal due to excessive Longing positions.
On the positive side, funding remains low, creating room for price increases without accumulating significant leverage risk. Simultaneously, Open Interest remains stable instead of collapsing, leaning more towards a repositioning scenario than capitulation.
In the context of tight supply on the exchange and a large Short , this structure is more likely to lead to a "forced position adjustment" rather than fluctuations due to short-term euphoria.
ZEC is poised for a continued uptrend as supply decreases and Short are under pressure.
When spot accumulation reduces supply on the exchange, Derivative strongly favor Short positions, creating conditions for ZEC to rise due to Short closing pressure and ineffective selling.
The combined signals include: large net outflows from the exchange, a high Short ratio but the price maintaining a higher Dip structure, superior Short liquidation, and not excessively high funding. This combination often increases the probability of a "position reset," where upward movement occurs as Short are forced to buy back.
Technically, the 520–550 range is near resistance, while 680–720 is the main barrier. If clearly breached, 800 becomes the next psychological target. If rejected, the shallowness of corrective movements will be a key indicator of trend health.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the withdrawal of 7,714 ZEC from the Kraken mean for the price?
It reduces the supply of ZEC on the exchange, thereby easing immediate selling pressure. Prices may not react immediately if Derivative liquidation the outflow, but the impact is usually delayed as short-term trading supply is tightened.
Which price range is determining the short-term trend of ZEC?
The 520–550 zone is the nearest resistance that ZEC is testing. The next major hurdle is 680–720; if recaptured decisively, the market could head towards the psychological 800 mark.
Why can a high Short position lead to increased volatility?
When there are too many Short positions but the price doesn't fall, the pressure to close Short increases. Even a slight price increase can trigger liquidation or stop-loss orders, creating forced buying pressure and causing volatility to expand upwards.
What does a funding rate of +0.0027% indicate?
It shows that pessimistic sentiment has cooled down compared to the period of deep negative funding, but the market has not yet fallen into an excessively leveraged Longing position. This structure is generally XEM "not too hot," and could support the trend if the technical levels hold firm.
