Sui (Sui) is expected to unlock $82.8 million worth of Token on January 1st, increasing selling pressure and potentially making a price rebound unsustainable.
Although the Sui price has just broken back above the middle of its short-term trading range, volume data and money flow indicators do not yet support a clear uptrend. Therefore, traders should prioritize risk management scenarios before important technical levels.
- Sui will have an $82.8 million Token Lockup unlock on January 1st, increasing the risk of selling pressure.
- The price is currently fluctuating within the range of $1.30–$1.68; the $1.49–$1.50 mark is a key area.
- Weak volume and OBV make the short-term bullish scenario risky; the $1.43 mark is a invalidation/structural change point.
Sui faces further selling pressure following the unlocking of its $82.8 million worth of Token Lockup .
The monthly Token Lockup unlock on January 1st could add to the supply, thereby increasing selling pressure and limiting Sui's potential for an upward reversal.
Sui is said to be recording an $82.8 million Token Lockup unlock on January 1st. This is a recurring monthly unlock, often watched by the market because it can increase the amount of Token in circulation, creating additional potential supply for sellers.
With prices attempting to recover from recent Dip , a supply boost could force buyers to absorb more to sustain the upward momentum. This is especially important given that volume signals do not yet indicate strong participation from new capital.
Sui has been trading sideways within the $1.30–$1.68 range since November.
The 1-day chart shows that Sui remains sideways in the $1.30–$1.68 range, reflecting that the market has not yet chosen a clear trend direction.
During the period from November, Sui formed a relatively clear trading range: a Dip around $1.30 and a top around $1.68. With this "range" structure, price behavior typically revolves around retesting the middle areas of the range before moving towards the two ends of the range.
When the market is still within a range, the risk of a "false breakout" increases, especially if volume is inconsistent. Therefore, traders often prefer confirmation by breakout signals accompanied by volume or wait for a clear reaction at key levels (mid-range, top of the range, Dip of the range).
Recovering the $1.49–$1.50 level is a bullish signal, but not yet a confirmation.
Sui breaking above the 1.49–1.50 USD range could pave the way to 1.68 USD, but the lack of support from OBV and volume makes this signal unreliable.
The midpoint of the zone was stated at $1.49, and Sui was trading around $1.50 at the time of mention. A "reversal" of the midpoint from resistance to support is often XEM as a signal that the market may move to test the zone's peak, in this case, $1.68.
Notably, buyers pushed the price above the midpoint for the first time since December 17th. However, the OBV indicator remained flat, failing to show a clear upward accumulation trend. Simultaneously, volume was described as lower than the 20-day Medium for the previous two weeks.
The RSI is showing a positive shift in momentum. However, when volume and OBV do not increase proportionally, the bullish signal is easily weakened, especially if affected by supply from Token Lockup unlocking.
Bullish scenario: Look for a retest of $1.50 but accept the invalidation point of $1.43.
If Sui retests and holds above $1.50, the technical target could be $1.68; a drop below $1.43 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
The optimistic scenario is based on the fact that Sui has broken out of its uptrend structure multiple times in recent days, and Bitcoin (BTC) is also approaching the psychological resistance level of $90,000. In a short-term “risk-on” environment, momentum may temporarily favor the buyers.
With a range-based approach, a common strategy is to wait for the price to retest the $1.50 mark (the area recently reclaimed) to find an entry point, expecting the price to continue towards the peak of $1.68. However, the $1.43 mark is cited as an invalid threshold: if the price breaks through it, the short-term uptrend structure is broken and the risk of a bearish reversal increases.
However, the overall assessment suggests that this scenario is less likely because the larger timeframe still shows sellers having the upper hand.
Action recommendation: It is preferable to stay on the sidelines as signs of weak buying power remain.
The sideways movement of OBV and weakening volume make the short-term bullish scenario risky; traders may wait for a clear signal or stay out of the market, especially if $1.43 is broken.
On the 1-day timeframe, the declining OBV and volume signals are XEM as evidence that the buyers are not strong enough to support a sustained uptrend. Despite mentioning "demand" on lower timeframes, the risk remains high when prices rise without confirmation of cash flow.
Two approaches are suggested: (1) wait for a failed breakout from the middle zone and then consider a Short position according to the range structure, or (2) continue to stay out to avoid being caught up in the volatility due to "FOMO". If the price falls below $1.43, this is XEM a structural shift to a bearish one, and traders should be cautious about the risk of further declines within the range.
Final assessment
The upward surge in Sui may lack sustainability as selling pressure from Token Lockup unlocking increases, while the short-term momentum of Sui and Bitcoin easily creates a sense of "attraction" that fuels FOMO (fear of missing out) among traders.
- The rebound in Sui price may not be sustainable due to potential selling pressure from the Token Lockup unlocking event.
- The short-term momentum of Sui and Bitcoin may be attractive, but traders should avoid FOMO when volume signals are not yet supportive.
Frequently Asked Questions
How might Sui 's $82.8 million Token Lockup unlocking affect the price?
Token Lockup can increase the supply of tradable tokens, thereby increasing selling pressure. If buying inflows do not increase correspondingly (as shown by volume and OBV), the price may struggle to maintain its upward momentum and could easily be pulled back to support levels.
Why is the $1.49–$1.50 mark important for Sui?
This is the middle zone of the $1.30–$1.68 range. When the price moves from resistance to support, the probability of retesting the top of the zone increases. Conversely, losing this level usually causes the price to turn towards the Dip of the zone and increases the risk of breaking through the support.
What does the $1.43 level mean in this trading scenario?
$1.43 is XEM the invalidation threshold for a short-term bullish scenario. If the price falls below this level, the bullish structure may be broken and the signal may shift to a bearish trend, making holding long positions riskier.
