On December 30th, Haseeb, Managing Partner of Dragonfly, shared his predictions for 2026 in an article on X. Some key points are as follows:
BTC is expected to break $150,000 by the end of the year, but its market share will decline.
Fintech public chains such as Tempo, Arc, and Robinhood Chain may fall short of market expectations; in contrast, Ethereum and Solana are expected to exceed expectations. Top developers will continue to choose neutral infrastructure public chains.
• A major tech company (Google, Facebook, Apple, etc.) will launch or acquire a crypto wallet in 2026;
The three major Perp DEXs will capture 90% of the market share in this sector, leaving other projects to compete for only 10%.
• Equity investment is growing rapidly and will account for more than 20% of total DeFi investment by the end of the year;
• The supply of stablecoins will increase by approximately 60% in 2026, with USD stablecoins maintaining a share of over 99%, while USDT's dominance will slightly decline to approximately 55%.
• The Clarity Act will become law, but it will require considerable negotiation.
• The prediction market is developing rapidly, but 90% of prediction market products will be completely ignored and gradually disappear by the end of the year;
The main applications of artificial intelligence in the field of encryption are still limited to software engineering and security, while other aspects are still in the prototype stage.
