As China launched its military exercises around Taiwan, US President Trump opted for a more moderate interpretation. He pointed out that China has been conducting military exercises around Taiwan for "20 years" and did not believe this action represented a significant escalation of the situation. Meanwhile, market forecasts also reflected a relatively calm assessment, with the market generally betting that the probability of a conflict breaking out in the short term remains low, and only 0.4% betting that China would invade Taiwan in 2025.
In response to the US's $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the CCP launched military exercises surrounding Taiwan.
On December 2, Eastern Time, Trump officially signed the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act, which requires the U.S. State Department to regularly review and update the guidelines for engagement with Taiwan, including any subsequent related documents, at least once every five years, and to submit a report to Congress within 90 days of the completion of the review.
On December 17, Eastern Time, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) released the latest details of the arms sale to Taiwan. This $11.1 billion deal, the largest single arms deal in history, focuses on "asymmetric defense" capabilities and includes advanced equipment such as high mobility rocket systems, howitzers, drones, and anti-tank missiles.
According to the BBC, this arms sale includes the renewal of the HIMARS long-range precision strike system, the M109A7 self-propelled artillery, anti-armor drone missile systems, the Taiwan Tactical Network (TTN) and Force Awareness Application Kit (TAK), the renewal of Javelin anti-tank missiles, the renewal of TOW missiles, spare parts for AH-1W helicopters, and Harpoon missile repair kits for overhaul.
China responded by imposing sanctions on 20 entities and 10 individuals for providing arms sales to Taiwan, and by launching the "Justice Mission 2025" military exercise around Taiwan.
Trump on Chinese military exercises: They've been going on for 20 years, and he doesn't believe there will be any action.
At a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in response to a media question about China's recent military activities around Taiwan, Trump stated that he has a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that Xi had not mentioned the matter to him. He said, "I've certainly seen the reports, but he hasn't mentioned it to me, and I don't believe he's going to be doing it." Trump also pointed out that China has been conducting naval exercises in the region for 20 years.
On the prediction market Polymarket, a betting pool with a trading volume of $12.17 million shows only 0.4% of bets on China invading Taiwan in 2025. If the timeframe is extended to March 31, 2026, the probability rises to 4%. If the timeframe is further extended to "Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2026?", the probability rises to 12%. However, the crypto in Chinese-speaking regions currently considers this unlikely, more likely viewing it as a speculative investment (i.e., betting against an invasion to generate returns).
From the Ukraine-Russia War to the military exercises surrounding Taiwan, what can ordinary people do?
Looking back at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia first conducted small-scale military exercises on the Ukrainian border. After each exercise, the troops returned to their original positions, and Russia mocked Ukraine and European countries for being overly tense. Next, Russia began to amass troops, announcing large-scale live-fire exercises and openly deploying troops. Finally, there were the unconventional warfare tactics employed before the formal outbreak of war, including deception, cognitive warfare, cyber warfare, and psychological warfare, to mislead the enemy and cause them to misjudge the situation.
Thomas Shattuck, a scholar at the University of Pennsylvania who has long studied cross-strait relations, believes that the military exercises surrounding Taiwan are just part of a series of year-end drills, ultimately concluding with Xi Jinping's New Year's address to Taiwan. The U.S. State Department has not yet issued a travel warning for Taiwan. Although, based on Trump's remarks and market predictions, the probability of a Chinese invasion remains low, the military exercises surrounding Taiwan have indeed caused social unrest in Taiwan.
Whether the military exercises are a test of obedience by the CCP or routine drills, the public can only do the following:
- Rely primarily on official and multi-source verified information to prevent panic. Prioritize official channels such as the Ministry of National Defense, the Executive Yuan, and the Coast Guard Administration, and maintain a high degree of skepticism towards insider information circulating on social media platforms and what friends in the military say.
- Make basic disaster preparedness routine, and prepare 3-7 days' worth of drinking water, ready-to-eat food, commonly used medicines, power banks, flashlights, simple radio equipment, important documents, insurance, and digital and physical backups of contact lists.
- Develop a disaster prevention plan, plan the arrangements for the elderly, children, and patients with chronic diseases during wartime, remember the evacuation points near your home, and communicate with your family about the assembly point if communication is interrupted.
This article, titled "Trump Claims China's Military Exercises Around Taiwan Have Been Going On for 20 Years, Doesn't See the Situation Escalating," predicts a market intrusion probability of only 0.4%, first appeared on ABMedia ABMedia .
