The M&A boom in the venture capital market is expected to intensify again in 2025, with even fiercer competition for startup acquisitions anticipated in 2026. Particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, efforts to rapidly acquire talent and technology have been fully launched, with "technological competitiveness" and "technology acquisition" becoming core values in M&A deals.
According to Crunchbase data, approximately 2,300 venture capital-backed mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals will occur globally in 2025, with publicly disclosed transaction value reaching approximately $214 billion. This figure represents a 91% surge compared to 2024. The US market accounts for 73% of these deals, serving as the central hub for M&A activity, with a total of 1,300 transactions totaling $157 billion.
A prime example of this trend is Google's $32 billion acquisition of cloud security startup Wiz, the largest venture capital-backed acquisition of a U.S. startup in history. This was followed by a string of large-scale deals, including Naver Financial's acquisition of Dunamu and Thermo Fisher Scientific's acquisition of Clario. In 2025, there were a record 36 acquisitions targeting unicorn companies, totaling $67 billion.
Interestingly, these mergers and acquisitions are interpreted as more than just simple equity acquisitions; they represent strategic moves to rapidly acquire technology and talent. Particularly in the highly competitive field of artificial intelligence, there is an increase in "bold bets" to acquire early-stage startups for tens to hundreds of billions of Korean won. Lucas Heebart of EY-Vincent Americas explains, "It's not simply sales for restructuring purposes, but rather technology-driven strategies leading the market."
Trump Media & Technology Group, a major shareholder and publicly traded company of former President Trump, has also attracted considerable attention. In December 2025, the company announced a stock-swap merger with TAE Technologies, a nuclear fusion technology specialist, in a deal valued at over $60 billion. Despite the unusual combination of nuclear fusion and social media, its strategic focus on "maximizing technological growth and capital market leverage" has drawn market attention.
Among the drivers of mergers and acquisitions, the dual-track strategy combined with the recovery of the IPO market cannot be ignored. KPMG's Anuj Bahal stated, "A well-functioning IPO environment can actually boost mergers and acquisitions. The threat of going public provides leverage in negotiations, and the practice of rapidly expanding externally with ample cash liquidity after listing is becoming increasingly common."
As the M&A market restructures with a technology-centric focus, valuation criteria are also shifting. Experts agree that there's a growing trend moving away from traditional earnings multiples or EBITDA-based profit center models, prioritizing the strategic value of talent and intellectual property. Itay Sagie, representative of Sagie Capital Advisors, specifically points out: "M&A pricing between AI and non-AI businesses has diverged into a dual-market structure." He adds, "AI is centered on the value of talent and algorithms, while other industries still primarily rely on publicly traded earnings multiple models."
On the other hand, besides acquiring technology or talent, many companies choose mergers and acquisitions as an alternative to avoid financial difficulties. Analysts believe that the reduction in venture capital investment rounds and the frequent valuation downgrades in 2025 have led to an increase in mergers and acquisitions aimed at mitigating this risk. According to EY data, approximately 16% of startup investment transactions this year were classified as valuation downgrades, with many entrepreneurs choosing to sell to avoid excessive equity dilution.
Looking ahead to 2026, experts, based on market recovery and expectations for growth in technology companies, tend to anticipate a slight increase in M&A activity. Ernst & Young-Bosch Labs predicts a 3% increase in the number of M&A transactions in the United States next year. Bahal emphasizes, "Easy monetary policy, a favorable regulatory environment, and the continuation of technology-driven growth industries are the core conditions for this optimism."
However, uncertainty remains. If factors such as the possibility of continued interest rate hikes, concerns about an overheated AI market, geopolitical tensions, and increased external regulation combine, the market will inevitably return to a wait-and-see approach. Sagie analyzed, "It's not a technological collapse that causes M&A to stagnate, but rather when market confidence is shaken, that investment stops."
Ultimately, M&A activity in 2026 will depend on confidence in "technology and talent," the stability of the economic environment, and the extent to which investor confidence recovers. Competition for acquisitions surrounding AI, cybersecurity, and early-stage startups is expected to continue, and the market is closely watching how this trend will peak.
