The year 2025 suggests that Bitcoin will increasingly be dominated by "waiting" Capital flows and Derivative positions rather than spot buying, resulting in tight supply but sideways price movement.
Changes in the BTC market structure reduce “chaos” due to more orderly money flows, but at the same time make short-term volatility highly dependent on leverage. This raises the question: how will Bitcoin react in 2026 when supply is scarce but spot demand doesn’t explode?
- Small wallets under 0.1 BTC have seen cumulative gains of approximately 3.3% since July, while wallets in the 10–10,000 BTC range have remained almost flat with a 0.36% increase.
- BTC continues to be delisted from exchanges for much of 2025, suggesting a long-term holding trend despite the price being "stuck" in a sideways range.
- ERC-20 stablecoins are experiencing increased supply, and Derivative are outpacing spot prices, making price volatility heavily influenced by leverage and sell-offs.
Small wallets are expected to accumulate more wealth than large wallets in 2025.
on-chain data shows a significant increase in accumulation among small wallets, while large wallets have seen only a slight increase, reflecting persistent retail buying but not enough to create a price breakout.
According to Santiment, wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have increased their holdings by approximately 3.3% since July. During the same period, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have only increased by about 0.36%.
Large investors' behavior is also more tactical: they buy during rallies near year-highs, then reduce their exposure once prices peak. Conversely, retail investors tend to continue buying during price corrections.
A notable signal is the BTC outflow from exchanges, which is expected to occur largely in 2025, often interpreted as supply shifting toward long-term holdings. However, prices have largely remained within a range, creating a "discrepancy" between supply conditions and price reactions.
ERC-20 stablecoins are increasing in supply, money is staying in crypto but "waiting and seeing".
The increase in stablecoin supply indicates that Capital is still in the crypto market, but it hasn't yet transformed into strong enough spot buying pressure to pull BTC out of its waiting state.
In the second half of 2025, the supply of ERC-20 stablecoins is expected to increase, implying that money remains within the crypto ecosystem. However, this Capital may be in a holding pattern, waiting for a more attractive risk/reward ratio rather than immediately buying spot.
A pragmatic interpretation is: the market has "ammunition" but hasn't pulled the trigger yet. When Capital is in the form of stablecoins, it can quickly shift to BTC, altcoins, or revert to a defensive stance, depending on liquidation and volatility.
Refer to the analysis from CryptoQuant in the link: ERC-20 stablecoin supply increases in the second half of the year .
Derivative overshadow spot trading, making prices sensitive to leverage and open interest.
When Derivative volume exceeds spot volume, short-term BTC volatility is easily driven by leveraged positions and open interest changes, rather than "natural" spot demand.
Trading activity is increasingly shifting away from the spot market and towards Derivative. In this context, Open Interest (OI) becomes a crucial variable that can significantly impact short-term price movements.
As a result, the upward price momentum based on organic spot demand is partially replaced by leveraged instability. Prices may fluctuate more rapidly, but the quality of the trend sometimes depends on position structure, funding levels, and chain liquidations.
These "sell-offs" amplify volatility, especially during sharp declines.
The price of BTC was amplified at many points by forced closing positions, especially during the year-end dip, indicating that market structure is heavily influenced by positioning.
Price fluctuations are often exaggerated when the market experiences a position unwind, meaning forced closing of positions due to insufficient margin or risk management. This is more evident during downtrends, when technical selling pressure, amplified by sentiment, causes the downward slope to intensify.
In this context, the "supply narrative" (BTC delisting, long-term holding) doesn't automatically translate into an immediate price increase. Instead, market positioning and leverage levels can determine the short-term price movement.
As we enter 2026, the BTC market tends to "mature" and reward patience.
What happens in 2025 suggests the crypto market is becoming more mature: less driven by headlines and narratives, and able to move more slowly before prices "catch up".
If 2025 proves anything, it's that crypto is becoming a more "mature" asset, where patience may be more important than short-term narratives. In this model, prices may still rise over time, but won't necessarily react hastily to every change in supply/demand as in previous cycles.
This development could be the “new normal”: tight supply, accumulation by retail investors, stablecoins awaiting deployment, and short-term volatility determined by Derivative . For investors, this increases the importance of leverage management and holding discipline.
Quick summary
Data shows that small wallets increased their holdings by approximately 3.3%, while large wallets remained almost unchanged at 0.36%. Despite BTC delisting from exchanges (implying tight supply), the price is still waiting, amidst increasing supply of stablecoins and the Derivative , making the Bitcoin market structure appear more mature.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is BTC leaving exchanges in large numbers, yet the price remains stagnant?
BTC delisting typically suggests long-term holding and a reduction in available supply, but price also depends on actual spot buying pressure. In 2025, a portion of Capital will be held in "waiting" stablecoins, while Derivative and leverage will significantly impact short-term volatility, potentially trapping prices within a range.
Is it always a sign of a price increase when retail investors accumulate more shares?
Not necessarily. Small-scale accumulation reflects steady demand, but a sustainable uptrend requires sufficiently large Capital flows and favorable liquidation conditions. If the market is dominated by Derivative, short-term prices can still fluctuate based on positioning and unwind periods.
What does the increased supply of stablecoins mean for Bitcoin?
An increase in the supply of stablecoins typically indicates that Capital remains within the crypto ecosystem and is likely to quickly shift to riskier assets like BTC. However, this doesn't Capital immediate spot purchases; it could also simply be a waiting state for risk management or a suitable entry point.
Why can Derivative make markets less stable?
Derivative are leveraged, so when prices move against expectations, positions can be forcibly closed, creating a chain reaction. When the volume of Derivative exceeds the spot price, price volatility can be amplified by liquidations and changes in open interest (OI), rather than purely reflecting spot supply and demand.
Which indicators should investors monitor in a market dominated by positioning?
In addition to on-chain data such as BTC flow on/off exchanges and wallet distribution, investors often monitor Derivative signals such as open interest (OI) and unwind signals. The goal is to identify when volatility is due to leverage in order to adjust risk, especially during sharp declines.
