The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Financial Stability Report warns that stablecoins could pose risks to macroeconomic financial stability and advocates for countries to prioritize the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to maintain financial order.
At the same time, the RBI forecasts a decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of the Indian banking system, but an increase in risks at non-bank financial institutions (NBFCs). These assessments could influence the direction of stablecoin regulation and cryptocurrency infrastructure development in the region.
- The RBI has stated that stablecoins pose a risk to macroeconomic financial stability and is promoting the prioritization of CBDCs.
- Bank NPLs are projected to fall to 1.9% in fiscal year 2026-27.
- NBFC's NPL is expected to increase from 2.3% to 2.9%.
System stability: Banks reduce bad debt, NBFCs face increased risk.
The RBI forecasts that the net present value (NPL) of the Indian banking system will decrease from 2.1% (September 2025) to 1.9% in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while the NPL of the NBFC will increase from 2.3% to 2.9%.
The divergence in trends between banks and NBFCs suggests that credit risk may be shifting to the non-banking sector. The report highlights the increasing risks to NBFCs, in contrast to the improving outlook for the banking system.
The RBI's projected NPL figures are: banks 1.9% (2026-27) compared to 2.1% (September 2025); NBFCs 2.9% compared to 2.3%. This development necessitates monitoring financial pressures in non-bank institutions, which may involve financial innovation and Capital supply channels.
Stablecoins and the CBDC trend: prioritizing financial order.
The RBI report reaffirms that stablecoins can pose risks to macroeconomic financial stability and supports countries prioritizing the development of CBDCs to maintain financial order.
The RBI highlighted concerns about stablecoins in the context of financial system governance, viewing them as a factor that could impact macroeconomic stability. The stated direction is to prioritize CBDCs as a way to strengthen financial order.
In the cryptocurrency market, this stance could reinforce the view of closer supervision of stablecoins, while also promoting the choice of CBDC-based payment infrastructure. The report does not provide further data on stablecoins, but offers a warning about risks at the macro level and recommendations on policy priorities.
