I don't think you can link alts' performance to the BTC 4-year cycle. They underperformed due to multiple unrelated factors, such as: 1. Most flows were institutional through ETFs and DATs, these players don't move up the risk curve into alts. 2. Memecoin mania eviscerated the retail segment; Pump fun's average wallet performance speaks for itself. 3. Crimemaxxing season, likely the biggest value extraction cycle ever by grifters and insiders. 4. Super high FDV launches. Most price discovery was captured in private markets, unlike the insane runs last cycle for AVAX and SOL for example. $BTC currently topped within 14 days of the expected date compared to the last two cycles, which I consider extremely precise on the 4-year window. As long as it stays under $100k, I give it very low chances of a new high next year and think you're better off assuming we're in a bear market until the end of '26. We recently saw that midterm years are usually the worst year for stocks on the election cycle. BTC has underperformed the Nasdaq as AI is the goose laying the golden eggs. While it didn't necessarily rise with the indexes, its downside correlation with NQ/SPX is very high. The markets have been pricing Trump's 'run it hot' economy in advance, retail is already all in on stocks. The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in its next meetings, liquidity is extremely tight right now, inflation fears remain strong, overall it's not looking good.