On Friday, January 2nd (local time), approximately $2.9 billion (approximately KRW 4.1881 trillion) worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired, kicking off the first trading week of the new year. While this expiration is smaller than the average for previous years, it is noteworthy as it could have a subtle impact on investor sentiment amidst market turmoil.
Option expiration reduced due to holiday
This options expiration involved approximately 21,000 Bitcoin (BTC) contracts and 130,000 Ethereum (ETH) contracts, with a notional value of approximately $1.85 billion (approximately KRW 2.6717 trillion) and $396 million (approximately KRW 571.8 billion), respectively. This represents a significant reduction in size compared to the large-scale expiration event on the last Friday of 2025. Experts attribute this to the holiday season and the resulting slowdown in trading volume.
Most of these options are expected to expire "in the money," near the current market price. Notably, the maximum pain point for these BTC options is approximately $88,000 (approximately KRW 127.1 million), a level that would allow the majority of option holders to realize profits based on the strike price.
Market structure suggests strength, but liquidity remains low.
There are also notable points in the statistics based on options open interest (OI). According to Coinglass, BTC options open interest is concentrated at the $100,000 strike price, reaching approximately $1.3 billion (approximately KRW 1.8774 trillion). Furthermore, contracts worth approximately $1.1 billion (approximately KRW 1.5886 trillion) are concentrated at the $75,000 and $80,000 levels, indicating some bearish bets are also present.
Additionally, the put/call ratio for ETH options is 0.62, reflecting a cautious outlook, with more put options (expecting a decline) than call options (expecting a rise). The maximum payoff for ETH options was $2,950 (approximately 4.26 million won), trading near the price range as of that morning.
In this week's market update, Greeks Live assessed that "overall liquidity remains tight and market sentiment remains bearish." Indeed, total BTC options open interest has fallen to around $28 billion (approximately KRW 40.4376 trillion) since the previous trading week's expiration. ETH open interest stands at $6.7 billion (approximately KRW 9.6771 trillion), about one-third of its level in August of last year.
BTC and ETH are holding steady, with altcoins also following suit.
As of the Asian session, the first trading day after the holiday, Bitcoin rose 1.3% from the previous day and approached $89,000 (approximately 128.37 million won), but encountered strong resistance at this point. Ethereum rose 1.7% over the day, once again breaking above $3,000 (approximately 4.33 million won).
Credibull Crypto, a market analyst, said, "While some say this is a high point compared to past trends, there are no major structural changes on a high-time frame (HTF) basis." He added that the $74,000 support level remains valid and some "bottoming signals" are emerging.
Daan Crypto Trades analyzed the New Year and monthly candlestick patterns and concluded, "The first week is typically characterized by volatile movements, with up and down 'fake-outs,' so a wait-and-see approach is recommended rather than one-sided confidence."
Meanwhile, major altcoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE), Ada (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Avalanche (AVAX) also showed strong performances on the day, supporting the positive sentiment of the overall market.
Article Summary by TokenPost.ai
๐ Market Interpretation
Despite its smaller size, the first Friday of the year's crypto options expiration is an event that has a significant impact on market participant sentiment. In particular, both BTC and ETH expire at strike prices similar to the current market price, which could lead to a gradual strengthening of price movements rather than a sharp liquidation of positions.
๐ก Strategy Points
Options indicators, such as the put/call ratio and maximum pain point, are useful for assessing short-term trading sentiment. BTC's low put/call ratio this time suggests the possibility of further upward movement. However, given the low liquidity environment at the start of the year, a cautious approach is required compared to long-term positions.
๐ Glossary
- 'Open Interest': The number of derivatives positions that have not yet been settled.
- 'Max Pain': The event that causes the greatest loss to option buyers.
- 'Put/Call Ratio': The ratio of buy options to sell options, indirectly reflecting investor sentiment.
๐ก Want to know more? AI-prepared questions for you:
A. The size of this maturity is relatively small, so its direct impact is limited. However, caution is required as it could trigger changes in investor sentiment or increased volatility.
A. This refers to the price range where losses are greatest among open option investors, and the market tends to converge toward that point.
A. This can be interpreted as a signal that the market is bullish, as it means that there is a high proportion of call options that anticipate an increase.
A. Trading participation typically decreases during the year-end and New Year holidays, so options trading volume and expiration sizes tend to decrease. Movements during this period can be distorted, so careful interpretation is necessary.
TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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