Canadian miner Frank Giustra believes Bitcoin could still fall further from $88,000, especially if companies holding BTC in corporate treasuries run into trouble and have to "flee," creating better buying opportunities.
This argument revolves around the risk of an "unwind" of Bitcoin treasury companies in 2026, while some organizations like Grayscale suggest that the selling impact may not be as significant as feared and the market has already somewhat reflected the worst-case scenario.
- Frank Giustra expects Bitcoin to fall further if BTC holding companies encounter problems and have to "unload their positions".
- The main risks include the possibility of being removed from the MSCI index and compressed mNAV, forcing the company to increase debt or sell BTC.
- Grayscale estimates that selling pressure from this group in 2026 may not be significant; a technical milestone mentioned is $74,000.
Frank Giustra suggests that Bitcoin could fall further and that a "deep price drop" is worth waiting for.
Frank Giustra said he would wait for a better discount because if Bitcoin treasury companies encounter problems, the “de-escalation” process could cause BTC to trade significantly lower than it is currently.
In a social media exchange, when advised to "buy BTC in case of a sharp increase," he responded that he would wait for a better price and added ...
“If Bitcoin treasury companies run into trouble, there will be a shakeout, and Bitcoin will trade much lower. If I’m wrong, it won’t change my life.”
– Frank Giustra, businessman (excerpt from X)
He is XEM to have a "bear" view for 2026, based on the hypothesis that the amount of BTC in corporate treasuries could be unwinded. He also refutes the notion that those who short BTC are "stupid," arguing that "avoiding gambling is not stupid at all."
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries hold approximately 4.9% of the supply, after the ETF group.
At the time mentioned, corporate Bitcoin treasuries held 1.035 million BTC, equivalent to 4.9% of the total supply; ETFs led with approximately 7% of the supply.
Leading the group of corporate treasuries is Strategy with 672,497 BTC. Given this scale, any changes to the financial structure of BTC treasury companies are usually closely monitored as they can affect market sentiment, although the actual impact depends on liquidation, the speed of sales, and how the market absorbs the supply.
The risk of being removed from the MSCI index could trigger automatic selling.
One risk raised is the possibility of being removed from the MSCI index, which would require some passive funds to rebalance and could lead to selling.
The original article suggested that being removed from MSCI could force “automatic redemption” and a sell-off. On Polymarket, the scenario of Strategy being removed from MSCI before March 31, 2026, is priced as highly probable; this market forecast is shown on the Polymarket forecast page .
A decrease in mNAV below 1 could force businesses to increase debt or sell BTC to buy back shares.
If mNAV is compressed and falls below 1, the company may have to increase debt or liquidate BTC to buy back shares in order to improve this valuation ratio.
The original text describes mNAV as a valuation multiple that tracks the value of crypto holdings relative to a company's underlying assets. When mNAV falls below 1, the company may be under pressure to act to "support" the index, for example by issuing debt or selling BTC to buy back shares. The article also states that many BTC treasuries are trading at a discount, and MSCI risks that this situation could worsen.
Grayscale predicts that the risk of an "unwind" may not create significant selling pressure in 2026.
Grayscale assesses that Bitcoin treasury companies are unlikely to become a major new source of demand or significant selling pressure in 2026, and Strategy is believed to have built up a reserve fund to avoid having to sell BTC.
In its 2026 outlook report, Grayscale mentions that Strategy has built up a reserve fund to limit the need to liquidate BTC, while also adding a perspective on the supply-demand impact from the group of "Treasury firms".
“These models (treasury companies) are unlikely to be a major source of new demand for Token or a major source of selling pressure in 2026, in our view.”
– Grayscale Research, 2026 Digital Asset Outlook Report
Additionally, market expectations that Strategy will sell BTC in 2025 were recorded as below 30% at the time of mention, according to the corresponding forecast on Polymarket . There are also signals of impending mergers between struggling Treasury companies, such as Semler Scientific and Strive.
The $74,000 mark is mentioned as a potential area to ease the correction.
One projection suggests that Bitcoin's correction could "calm down" around $74,000, coinciding with the mining cost zone that previously helped stem major declines.
Bitcoin trader Crypt Nuevo suggests that the $74,000 level could be where selling pressure eases. His argument is that this level coincides with the cost of mining BTC, a reference point he has observed around major correction Dip in the past. This is a market perspective, not a price guarantee.
Conclusion: BTC treasury risk may create buying opportunities, but the market is still debating.
A Bitcoin corporate treasury crisis scenario could create a more attractive “price drop,” but some assessments suggest that selling pressure may not be strong enough to cause a sharp market crash in 2026.
In summary, the "bear" argument focuses on the risk of unwinding due to MSCI and mNAV, while the counter-argument emphasizes liquidation reserves, the possibility of restructuring (mergers), and the market's expectation that the actual probability of a sale is not too high. If history repeats itself in the mining cost range, $74,000 is XEM a benchmark to watch, but macroeconomic risks and ETF Capital remain important variables.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "unwind" a corporate Bitcoin treasury mean?
"Unwind" is the process by which companies holding BTC in their treasuries must reduce their positions, for example by selling BTC to pay off debt, buy back shares, or meet portfolio rebalancing requirements. If this happens simultaneously, it could create supply pressure on the price of Bitcoin.
Why might MSCI delisting cause market concern?
If a company is removed from the MSCI index, some passive funds/strategies tracking the index may have to sell that stock upon rebalancing. This could increase the risk of financial stress and indirectly raise concerns about selling BTC.
What is mNAV and why is an mNAV below 1 considered risky?
mNAV is a valuation multiple described as a measure comparing the value of crypto holdings to the company's asset value. When mNAV falls below 1, the company may be under pressure to improve its valuation, for example by increasing debt or selling BTC to buy back shares.
What does Grayscale say about the risk of selling off BTC from treasury companies in 2026?
Grayscale suggests that Treasury companies are unlikely to become a major new source of demand or significant selling pressure in 2026, and notes that Strategy has built up a contingency fund to avoid having to liquidate BTC in a stressful scenario.
What does the $74,000 mark mean in this analysis?
The $74,000 mark was mentioned by one trader as a potential area to ease Bitcoin's correction, as it coincides with the BTC mining cost level that has previously "blocked" sharp declines, according to market observations.
