While most Wall Street traders enjoyed a long weekend, the Bitcoin (BTC) market delivered a starkly different signal: the US Coinbase premium index has remained negative for 21 consecutive trading days, with the latest value at -0.0331%. This is the longest negative premium since Trump took office, indicating that US funds are withdrawing to offshore markets.
Loss of pricing power in the US market
According to Coinglass data , the index fell as low as -0.1714% in the past 20 days, indicating that Coinbase's on-exchange price has been consistently lower than the global average price, mainly Binance.
Market analysts point out that this is not a sporadic discount, but a structural phenomenon caused by institutional selling pressure. Over the past five trading days, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of approximately $825 million; medium-term holders (1 to 5 years) have continued to sell in order to reduce their tax burden and secure their profits.
West sells, East buys to prop up prices
When the Coinbase index lagged behind the global average, there was significant buying interest in Asian and offshore markets. Several over-the-counter market makers in Singapore and Hong Kong actively bought in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, creating a "sell in the west, buy in the east" trend.
Regional demand imbalances prevented Bitcoin from breaking through key support levels despite selling pressure in the US, and the momentum of long-term holders (over 5 years) remained stable, indicating that overall network confidence remained unshaken.
Looking back at similar scenarios in the past, Coinbase's deep negative premiums have often accompanied medium- to long-term bottoms. When the selling momentum of US institutions slows down and the premium index turns positive, it often marks the beginning of a new round of upward movement. Currently, the index is still negative, indicating that selling pressure has not been fully released, but at the same time, it means that potential buying is accumulating at lower levels.
The above is not investment advice and is for reference only.
