On January 5, according to lookonchain monitoring, a trader named "beachboy4" on Polymarket lost more than $2 million in just 35 days, and his trading record has recently attracted attention in the community.
Data shows that the account participated in 53 predictions over 35 days, winning 27 of them, a win rate of approximately 51%. The largest single profit was approximately $936,000, but the largest single loss reached a staggering $1.58 million. The average bet per event was approximately $400,000, with the highest single bet also reaching $1.58 million.
Analysis revealed that the account's core problem lay in its misunderstanding of Polymarket's pricing logic. In its largest losing trade, the account bought "Liverpool Win (YES)" at 0.66, which does not equate to "Liverpool is highly likely to win," but rather implies "you are confident that the true probability of winning is higher than 66%." However, this trader consistently treated Polymarket as a binary sports betting platform, rather than a market based on probability and pricing strategies.
Further observation revealed that the account repeatedly bought at the consensus high price range of 0.51–0.67, forming a typical profit cap and risk total loss structure: limited upside potential (+50% to +90%), but downside potential of -100%. At the same time, it almost never set stop-loss orders, did not close positions early, and did not hedge, holding most of its losing positions until they were wiped out.
Furthermore, the account exhibited clear signs of repetitive heavy betting, frequently making large one-sided bets in highly publicized and relatively efficient markets such as the NBA and popular soccer teams. "High certainty" does not equate to "positive expected value," ultimately leading not to a matter of luck, but to a structurally inevitable loss.
