The US assassination attempt and arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro last week has drawn significant attention from international markets. Investors' focus has quickly shifted to whether Venezuelan crude oil will be affected, whether oil prices will fluctuate significantly, and whether the US will become more deeply involved in the country's energy industry. In a recent episode of a program, Daan Struyven, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, provided an immediate analysis of the event's development, the oil market's reaction, and its medium- to long-term impact.
Maduro's arrest by the United States creates a power vacuum in Venezuela.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was arrested by U.S. authorities in Caracas on April 1st on drug-related charges; his wife was also arrested. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is currently serving as interim president.
Struyven pointed out that, to date, there has been no substantial disruption to Venezuelan crude oil production . He stated that Venezuela's current crude oil production is approximately 800,000 barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of global production, but its proven oil reserves account for about 20% of the global total, making it highly potentially important in the long-term energy landscape.
Oil prices reacted only slightly, and the market assessment of the short-term impact remains unclear.
Following the event, international oil prices rose only slightly by about $1. Struyven believes the market reaction was relatively calm, mainly due to the "two-way uncertainty" surrounding short-term supply impacts.
On the one hand, if future blockades or sanctions escalate, it could lead to insufficient storage space, thereby forcing production to shut down; on the other hand, there is another possibility that if US companies reinvest and re-enter the market, Venezuelan production may actually rebound in the coming months.
With both risks rising simultaneously, the market struggles to price the oil, resulting in only a limited response in oil prices.
The short-term supply impact is limited, with a price risk of approximately plus or minus $2.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Venezuela's production could "go up or down" by approximately 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day over the next year. According to Goldman Sachs' own model, this translates to an impact of approximately plus or minus $2 per barrel on oil prices, a relatively manageable short-term fluctuation.
Struyven emphasized that what truly deserves attention is long-term potential, rather than immediate supply fluctuations.
The US signals intervention, prompting the market to reassess long-term value.
Regarding US President Trump's statement that the US will be "very strongly involved" in the future of Venezuela's oil industry and that he wants oil to "flow in the way it should," Struyven stated that the market has reason to take such statements seriously, primarily because Venezuelan oil possesses unique structural value.
He pointed out that almost all of the new global crude oil supply over the past decade has come from US shale oil, which is "light crude oil"; while Venezuela produces scarce "heavy crude oil", which is more suitable for producing high-value products such as diesel.
Furthermore, refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast are designed specifically to process this type of heavy oil and are highly compatible.
Aging infrastructure necessitates institutional safeguards for investment.
Despite favorable geological conditions, Struyven also cautioned that Venezuela's oil and gas infrastructure has long been neglected, and significantly increasing production will require time, substantial capital, and clear investment guarantees. He pointed out key uncertainties including:
Will the future tax system be stable?
Can the infrastructure be repaired?
Is there a policy risk of re-nationalization?
Against this backdrop, he cited market sources indicating that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to meet with executives from several major U.S. oil companies during Goldman Sachs' energy conference in Miami.
Goldman Sachs predicts that production will reach 1.5 to 2 million barrels by 2030.
Goldman Sachs predicts that if investment conditions gradually materialize, Venezuelan crude oil production could rise to 1.5 million barrels per day by 2030, and even reach 2 million barrels per day in an optimistic scenario. Struyven points out that with production doubling, global oil prices could potentially decrease by about $4 per barrel by 2030.
The divergence of influence between the United States and other countries is reshaping the global oil market.
If Venezuelan supplies return, beneficiaries may include:
Large U.S. oil companies with local presence
Refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast
In contrast, US shale oil producers and non-US oil-producing countries may face price and market share pressures. Struyven also pointed out that the stock prices of major European oil companies have already reacted negatively. He described this outcome as consistent with the US strategic goal of directing energy flows "to the West rather than the East."
Escalating geopolitical tensions drive gold prices higher; bullish outlook for gold in 2026.
Aside from the oil market, gold prices rose nearly 3% after the event. Struyven believes this reflects the highly divided geopolitical environment globally, with the US and China vying for energy and strategic resources, making central banks, especially those in emerging markets, more inclined to increase their gold holdings to diversify their dependence on the US dollar.
He stated that this further reinforces Goldman Sachs' view on the outlook for gold in 2026 and slightly increases its "bullish on gold" confidence.
This article, titled "Goldman Sachs: Venezuelan Political Changes Have Limited Short-Term Impact on Oil Market, Bullish on Gold in 2026," first appeared on ABMedia (a ABMedia ).
