Bitcoin has really shown some promise these past few days. It touched $95,000 at one point, and even broke through the 50-day moving average , a level rarely seen since November of last year.
More importantly, things are starting to move in the US. Coinbase's premium has turned positive again, and ETFs have seen inflows for several consecutive days, marking their longest winning streak in nearly three months. In short: it's not just talk about being bullish; the US dollar is actually entering the market.
Adding another emotional buffer—MSCI didn't remove MicroStrategy, a company heavily invested in Bitcoin, from its index this time. What does this mean? The sword that was hanging over MSTR's head has been temporarily withdrawn . If it had been removed, a bunch of passive funds would have been forced to reduce their positions, which would have been a real chain reaction. Now that it's not in the spotlight, the market is naturally relieved.
But if you say the trend has completely reversed? I advise you not to rush to pop the champagne.
You'll find a very paradoxical phenomenon: prices are firm, but there are fewer and fewer people.
ETFs are seeing outflows, the Coinbase premium has turned negative again, trading volume is declining, and retail investors haven't returned. Looking at the small-volume trading line, it's basically grinding below the zero line. What does this mean? Those chasing the rally have disappeared, and impulsive buying is receding.
Let's look at a more realistic indicator—realized market capitalization. It doesn't look at how attractive your current price is; it only looks at how much money was spent to buy these coins in the first place—a record of real money transactions. The problem now is that net capital flows have quietly turned negative over the past 30 days.
In other words, the new money coming in is already unable to cover the money going out. What will this result in? The market won't collapse immediately, but it will become— it looks strong, but it's difficult to sustain.
The upward trend is not smooth and there are many pullbacks. It is all driven by existing funds and leverage. What is lacking is the next baton to take over.
Interestingly, the exit of retail investors isn't necessarily a bad thing. Real bull markets often don't take off during the most exciting periods. Instead, they happen when trading volume cools down, sentiment cools, weaker investors leave, and shares gradually accumulate in the hands of those who can withstand market volatility.
Look at another detail: the volume is decreasing, but the price is still hovering at a high level. This usually means that sellers are no longer in a hurry to sell.
Selling pressure from long-term holders is decreasing, the market is flattening out volatility and holding back energy, as if waiting for a clearer direction.
However, short-term risks remain. The CME futures gaps haven't been filled, and there's more than one. History tells us that 98% of gaps are eventually filled; it's just a matter of time. So expecting a straight upward surge is unrealistic.
Looking at the on-chain data is also quite disheartening: in this recent rebound, realized losses far outweighed realized gains . This indicates that many people didn't leave with profits; instead, they were trying to break even, cut their losses, or escape. It's painful to hear, but historically, this "most painful moment" often occurs on the eve of a trend reversal.
So what's the current state of Bitcoin? In short: it's not taking off, but it doesn't look like it's about to collapse either.
There's resistance above and support below; sentiment is receding, and the market structure is repairing itself. This isn't a period of celebration for retail investors; it's more like a phase where patience and capital are being re-allocated.
Next, we either need to weather a more thorough reshuffling, or wait for confirmation before starting again.
Rushing to place bets can easily make you a target for others to switch hands.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688 or QQ: 2234099968
