With the start of 2026, the Bitcoin market underwent a significant shakeout and structural reconfiguration. After profit-taking pressure eased, the price rebounded from the $80,000 low to around $94,000, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment. However, a Glassnode report points out that there is a dense concentration of trapped capital above, which will be the biggest resistance for future price movements. The current market focus is on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis), considered a key watershed for confirming a trend reversal. Meanwhile, structural changes in institutional funds and the derivatives market also provide important clues about downside support.
Profit-taking pressure eases
In the first week of 2026, Bitcoin broke out of its long-term consolidation range around $87,000, rising approximately 8.5% to $94,400. This surge occurred after a significant easing of profit-taking pressure in the market. In late December 2025, realized profits (7-day moving average) dropped sharply to $183.8 million per day, well below the high of $1 billion per day for most of the fourth quarter. With the weakening of selling pressure, the market stabilized, regained rationality, and supported a new round of upward momentum. Therefore, the breakout in early January reflects that the market had effectively reset profit-taking pressure, allowing prices to rise.
Upper resistance: A break above the STH-MVRV level is key to confirming the trend.
While Bitcoin prices have rebounded recently, they are entering a structurally heavy supply range. Data shows a large amount of Bitcoin accumulated by recent buyers between $92,100 and $117,400. Most of these investors entered near cycle highs, and as prices rise, they will face the temptation of "break-even selling," creating natural price resistance.
The current STH -MVRV (Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model) is 0.95, meaning that recent investors are still in an average unrealized loss state of approximately 5%. The market must decisively return to profitable territory (STH-MVRV > 1). Only by consistently recovering and stabilizing above the short-term holder cost basis can we confirm the restoration of confidence among new market participants and signal a shift in market momentum from defensive to constructive. Otherwise, if prices remain below this level for an extended period, confidence-driven demand could be eroded again. The short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis) is currently at $99,100.
Note: MVRV Ratio (Market Cap to Realized Market Cap) is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin market capitalization by the sum of the prices of each Bitcoin at the time of its last move on the blockchain. Simply put, it's used to determine whether the current Bitcoin price is expensive or cheap relative to the average holder's cost basis. STH-MVRV (Short-Term Holder) only considers holdings of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days.
Lower support: a defensive buffer built by institutional funds
While upward pressure is significant, the support structure below is gradually strengthening. Fund flows in US spot ETFs have reversed, shifting from net outflows at the end of 2025 to net inflows, indicating that institutional investors are once again showing a willingness to accumulate in the $80,000 low range.
Furthermore, while the buying activity from Digital Asset Finance (DAT) exhibited "event-driven" and "intermittent" characteristics, rather than continuous structural buying, its large-scale intervention during price pullbacks provided an important bottom buffer for the market. This "buying on dips" pattern, coupled with the return of funds from ETFs, built a relatively solid defensive line in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, limiting the potential for further price collapse.
Derivatives Momentum: Acceleration Zone After $95,000
After a year-end 45% open interest cleansing, the derivatives market structure is now more favorable to long positions. As traders shifted to buying call options, market makers' gamma exposure has reversed to short gamma in the $95,000 to $104,000 range.
This means that once the price of Bitcoin breaks through $95,000, market makers will be forced to buy spot or futures contracts to hedge their risks, and this mechanical buying will "fuel" price volatility. Unlike the Long Gamma that suppressed volatility at the end of the year, the current structure no longer limits price increases; instead, it may trigger an accelerated rally after breaking through key levels. Therefore, $95,000 can be seen as the trigger point for a short-term breakout.
Has the chip clearing been completed? The key scenario for Bitcoin's 2026 bull market restart first appeared on ABMedia ABMedia .
