PANews reported on January 8th that it recently analyzed 295,000 historical market data points from the Polymarket platform. The data shows:
1. Over 60% of short-term markets have become "zombie" markets: In active markets with a cycle of less than 1 day, 63.16% of contracts have a 24-hour trading volume of 0.
2. Short-term liquidity shortage in crypto: The average trading volume in the short-term sports market ($1.32 million) is 30 times that of crypto ($44,000), indicating a lack of funding support for short-term crypto predictions.
3. Extreme head effect: Only 505 super contracts with a trading volume of over 10 million US dollars (a very small percentage) monopolized 47% of the total trading volume of the entire platform.
4. Large funds prefer long-term investments: The average liquidity of long-term forecasts (>30 days) is 45 times that of the daily market, with the US political sector leading the way with an average volume of $28.17 million.
5. The rise of geopolitics: This sector accounted for 29.7% of the active users, making it the fastest-growing segment.
Data shows that Polymarket is diverging into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro-political hedging," with liquidity highly concentrated in a very small number of leading narratives.
