BlackRock 2026 Outlook Report: Digital assets are the infrastructure for payments and settlements; bullish on AI-related US stocks.

According to Mars Finance, on January 13th, BlackRock recently released its 2026 Global Outlook report. The report emphasizes the massive scale of investment in AI infrastructure, leading to a "micro is macro" effect and bringing challenges such as increased leverage and the illusion of diversification. The overall stance remains pro-risk, overweighting US stocks (especially AI-related ones) and favoring active investment opportunities. The report's three core investment themes are: Micro is macro: AI development is dominated by a few companies, with capital expenditures large enough to impact the overall macroeconomy. Investment could reach $5-8 trillion (2025-2030), supporting US economic growth in 2026 (investment contribution three times the historical average), remaining resilient even with a cooling labor market. However, it is uncertain whether revenue will match expenditure and how much will flow back to tech giants. The report believes AI may accelerate innovation, but historically, major technological changes over the past 150 years have not broken the long-term 2% growth trend in the US; however, a "growth breakout" scenario is now conceivable. Leveraging up: The massive upfront investments in AI builders, coupled with lagging revenue, have led to increased systemic leverage; this, combined with high government debt, creates vulnerability. Private credit and infrastructure financing are favored. Tactically underweighting long-term government bonds (such as US Treasuries) is recommended, as high leverage and rising capital costs are detrimental to long-term debt. Diversification mirage: Under the prevailing trend, traditional diversification may actually be a concentrated bet. Investors need to proactively manage risk, maintain portfolio flexibility (have a Plan B), and seek unique sources of return from private markets and hedge funds. The report specifically points out that BlackRock views digital assets (especially stablecoins) as the infrastructure for payments and settlements (plumbing the financial system), rather than simply speculative assets. Stablecoins are seen as a "digital dollar track," evolving from a crypto-native tool into a bridge connecting traditional finance and digital liquidity, expanding into areas such as cross-border payments and settlements, especially in regions where traditional systems are slow/expensive/fragmented. The report suggests that crypto is integrating into mainstream finance, stablecoins are maturing into infrastructure, supporting global liquidity flows, and overlapping with traditional finance.