According to Foresight News , Bitfinex Alpha stated that while the mid-2026 outlook remains positive amid expectations of improved global liquidity, recent price movements are still constrained by geopolitical uncertainties, ETF fund flow volatility, and the need for a clear breakout above this resistance level to drive a decisive upward shift in the market structure. Options open interest fell sharply at year-end, clearing out historical positions and clarifying the derivatives market landscape, reflecting cautious optimism: long-term bullish positions coexist with near-term bearish hedging, and implied volatility, while still low, is gradually strengthening.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is entering a dense supply zone defined by recent high-level buyers, with a cost basis roughly between $92,100 and $117,400. As prices return to this area, holders who have endured the decline may increase break-even selling pressure in order to exit without incurring losses. This forms significant upper resistance, meaning further gains will require time and sustained spot demand to absorb the selling pressure. Until this supply is absorbed, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with risk appetite gradually recovering rather than immediately transitioning to a new strong upward trend.
