The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) officially released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2025 on January 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. The report showed that the overall annual inflation rate remained stable, fully in line with market expectations, while core inflation was slightly lower than expected, providing a small positive signal to the market.
Detailed performance of December CPI data
In terms of headline CPI, the seasonally adjusted monthly increase was 0.3%, in line with market expectations; the unadjusted annual increase was 2.7%, unchanged from November, also in line with expectations. This indicates that overall inflationary pressures are stable, with no significant signs of further acceleration.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) showed a more moderate performance, with a seasonally adjusted monthly increase of only 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%; the annual growth rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%, and unchanged from the previous month, marking the lowest level since March 2021. The slowdown in core inflation mainly reflects that pressures on the service sector and sticky prices (such as housing) have not worsened further, energy prices have eased significantly, while food and housing remain the main drivers of inflation. It should be noted that due to the potential federal government shutdown in 2025, some previous data contained noise. While this December report has returned to normal, it still carries some uncertainty regarding potential corrections.
Fed rate cut expectations have slightly declined.
Following the release of the CPI data, the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market is almost certain that the Fed will hold rates steady this month, maintaining them in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The probability of a rate cut in March and April has slightly decreased to 26.1% and 33.8%, respectively.
Cryptocurrency market rises in the short term
Influenced by CPI data, risk asset sentiment improved, and the cryptocurrency market saw a short-term rebound. Bitcoin briefly broke through $92,500, but selling pressure subsequently emerged, and at the time of writing, it had fallen back to the $92,100 level, with a nearly 24-hour increase of approximately 0.5%. Ethereum followed a similar trend, reaching a high of $3,160, and is currently trading at $3,140.
Gold and silver both hit record highs
The precious metals market was even stronger, with spot gold briefly rising above $4,620 per ounce, a record high; spot silver rose even more sharply, with a daily increase of more than 3.00%, breaking through $87 per ounce.
