From a market sentiment perspective, the Greed and Fear Index reached a high of 62 last week, officially entering the greed zone.
Looking back at history, you'll find that most rebound rallies tend to peak in the 60-70 range.
Even at the extreme point of this cycle, the sentiment index only reached a maximum of 76 .
So the current 62:
- Not the top
- However, the upward safety margin has been significantly compressed.
- On the contrary, the probability of a pullback is continuously increasing.
This is why I repeatedly remind everyone: reducing positions when prices are high is more important than blindly being bullish.
For those who are more aggressive, they can start considering shorting positions with low leverage and a long-term perspective.
Key question: Could this be the restart of the bull market?
This is the point that everyone is most concerned about.
I'm not taking any personal stance; I'm just looking at one thing— what is smart money doing?
According to on-chain data, long-term holders (the so-called "smart money") usually continue to accumulate tokens when the market is at its bottom, while they choose to gradually reduce their holdings near the peak.
The problem is that they did not significantly increase their holdings again after this round of decline.
On the contrary, it's about continuously selling at higher prices during a rebound.
What does this mean? In their eyes, this is not yet a safe place to buy the dips.
This is crucial; a wrong judgment often leaves you stranded at the top of the mountain.
Compared horizontally, it doesn't resemble the start of a bull market.
Another important comparison: During this period, US stocks, precious metals, and even the long-depressed A-shares have all seen significant increases. However, Bitcoin, with its highest risk profile, has underperformed most assets.
If it truly is the start of a bull market, high-risk assets are often the first and most aggressive to emerge.
But that's clearly not the case now.
This in itself is a sign of structural weakness .
A more realistic problem is that US stocks have been rising for a long time and could face a significant correction at any time. Once a correction occurs, the crypto will almost certainly be affected.
Top traders are also choosing to exit the market.
I take this very seriously.
Singapore-based trader and venture capitalist known as "Pigeon" recently stated that he has cleared out most of his positions, keeping only a small amount of BTC and converting the rest into cash.
His logic is simple: selling at the peak doesn't necessarily mean selling at the highest point, but the current price is already a very cost-effective profit-taking range .
It's worth noting that he publicly expressed a bullish view at the end of December, before this market rally began, when BTC was still around 80,000. Although it wasn't the lowest point, he captured the vast majority of the gains.
Therefore, his decision to leave at this moment is itself a valuable lesson.
The macro environment is quietly deteriorating.
The biggest misjudgment in the market right now is the pace of interest rate cuts .
According to the latest pricing data from Wall Street:
- The probability of an interest rate cut in April is only about 30%.
- The probability of an interest rate cut before April is 0.
- The first interest rate cut is likely to be postponed until June.
In other words, not cutting interest rates in January is just the beginning.
The macroeconomic environment is not expected to improve substantially in the coming months. However, the market has not yet fully priced this in.
By the time emotions truly kick in, prices have often already fallen significantly.
This is the information gap, and it's why smart money always acts in advance.
VI. Short-term structure: The rebound has entered its final stage.
Let's also look at the Bitcoin premium index:
It is still in the negative premium range, but the red range is rapidly converging.
If prices rise further to around 98,000–102,000 , they are likely to turn into a positive premium, which historically often corresponds to a temporary high .
This indicator is not 100% accurate, but when combined with other signals, it points in a very consistent direction:
👉This rebound is already in its later stages.
A significant pullback is highly probable, occurring within two or three days to one or two weeks.
Regarding the operational approach
My core principle now can be summed up in one sentence: know when to stop and don't linger.
The real opportunities in the market often appear after a correction, not when everyone starts fantasizing about a new bull market.
What's more important right now is:
- Control of positions
- Keep cash
- Waiting for the next emotional breakdown
That would be a more comfortable entry point.
Finally, let me say something honest.
The current market problem is not whether there are any positive factors, but that the truly effective positive factors have not yet materialized.
Both interest rate cuts and policy implementation will take time.
But market trends never wait for retail investors to be ready.
I prefer to view this rebound as a buffer before the release of risks .
Real opportunities often arise when people are most pessimistic.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your best chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Follow Sister Miao and get through the bear market together!
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688 or QQ: 2234099968
