Original article | Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author | Dingdang ( @XiaMiPP )
On January 20, Strategy disclosed that it had increased its holdings by 22,305 bitcoins, worth approximately $ 2.13 billion . This is Strategy's largest single purchase since 2025.
Over the past few months, Strategy's stock price has fallen nearly 200% from its high of $457. Criticism surrounding Strategy has also intensified. From high leverage and refinancing capabilities to the transmission mechanism of Bitcoin price volatility to stock price fluctuations, almost all negative arguments have been re-examined. Especially after mNAV fell below 1 , voices predicting the downfall of MSTR have been incessant.
Among these criticisms, a widely circulated article titled " Federal Reserve vs. Treasury: The Currency War Behind the Bitcoin Crash " even likened Strategy to a "Bitcoin Central Bank," arguing that it was involved in a game between the traditional financial system (Federal Reserve, Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase) and the emerging system (Treasury, stablecoins, Bitcoin collateralized financing), and accused institutions such as JPMorgan Chase of systematically short MSTR through methods such as delayed settlement and suppression of the options market.
Meanwhile, index provider MSCI has signaled the possibility of removing MSTR from its index. If this happens, it could theoretically trigger a passive sell-off of approximately $8.8 billion; Strategy's own calculations also indicate that in extreme circumstances, it could trigger a $2.8 billion stock liquidation.
Panic seems to be escalating... While the market worries about whether it will "sell Bitcoin" and "whether it can raise more funds," Strategy has chosen to demonstrate its commitment to being a staunch Bitcoin believer in the clearest and most powerful way.
The bottom is not a price, but the moment when a behavior begins to occur.
In its December 3rd article, " $1.44 Billion in Dividend Reserves Secured, Stock Price Plunges 10%: What's the Real Problem with Strategy? ", Odaily Odaily pointed out that Strategy's highly concentrated asset structure, reliance on capital market refinancing, and valuation model deeply tied to Bitcoin prices are inherent to its business . Therefore, when market trends reverse, these structural characteristics don't "suddenly fail," but rather amplify volatility more dramatically. The rapid price decline, in turn, reinforces pessimistic narratives, causing risks to be continuously amplified and repeatedly discussed at the emotional level.
Therefore, when almost everyone is extremely bearish and the news is all negative, it often means that the bad news may be being digested, or even has already been digested. This is why Buffett's saying, "Be greedy when others are fearful," is repeatedly quoted.
Therefore, what the market should really observe is not whether these negative factors hold true, but whether, when emotions are at their most extreme and bad news still exists, there have been any "lone warriors" in the market who have chosen to long on MSTR.
The answer is: Yes, and there is more than one type.
Vanguard: Institutional capital begins to intervene.
Vanguard is one of the world's largest asset management companies, managing over $12 trillion in assets. Since the beginning of 2026, two of its index funds have disclosed purchases of MSTR, with a combined increase in holdings of approximately $ 707.5 million.
It is important to emphasize that this is not an active expression of a bullish stance, because most of Vanguard Group's assets are automatically adjusted based on changes in index constituent stocks. In other words, the current purchase may be due to passive index tracking needs.
On January 20, the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VVIAX) disclosed its first purchase of MSTR stock, totaling 1.23 million shares, worth approximately $202.5 million. This is a value index fund that focuses on undervalued large-cap stocks, with core selection criteria including low price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and high dividend yields.
A similar situation occurred with another mid-cap index fund, Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VMCIX). The fund disclosed its purchase of 2.91 million shares of MSTR, worth approximately $505 million. MSTR's market capitalization continued to grow, making it eligible for inclusion in the mid-cap index, thus requiring the fund to increase its holdings to match the index weighting.
Overall, Vanguard's two purchases were likely driven more by index fund tracking than by active investment. However, within this "unbiased" inflow of funds, a key change is taking place: MSTR is being institutionalized into traditional asset allocation systems, becoming a compliant vehicle for Bitcoin risk.
Pension funds' tentative moves: signals behind small positions
In the more conservative pension fund sector, Louisiana State Employees' Retirement System (LASERS) disclosed on December 31, 2025, that it held 17,900 shares of MSTR, worth approximately $3.1 million , representing 0.02% of its approximately $16 billion in assets.
This is not an aggressive allocation; in fact, the position size is extremely small.
LASERS, Louisiana's retirement system for public employees, manages the retirement assets of over 100,000 state employees (including teachers and other public workers), totaling approximately $ 15.6 billion . The fund's portfolio is primarily concentrated in large-cap U.S. technology stocks such as NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. Given this portfolio, could the emergence of MSTR be interpreted as a deliberate and exploratory option for some state-level public funds to indirectly gain exposure to Bitcoin through publicly traded companies? While LASERS's holding in MSTR is relatively small, it represents a cautious and initial interest in crypto assets.
When actively managed funds choose to stand on the other side
Unlike passive index funds, actively managed funds make choices that are closer to a direct assessment of risk and return.
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, Jane Street Group, a globally renowned quantitative trading and market-making firm, disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 51.72%, with the number of shares held increasing from approximately 11.0588 million to 16.7784 million , while also holding a large number of call option positions .
In the same quarter, Capital International Investors also disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 713.07%, with the number of shares held increasing from approximately 1.5589 million to 12.6749 million .
In addition, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also stated that his core trading strategy for this quarter is to long onStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet , using them as high-leverage tools to bet on Bitcoin's trend.
Several asset management firms, including Bernstein, TD Cowen, and The Benchmark Company, have maintained their buy ratings on MSTR. For example, TD Cowen stated that despite short-term yield pressure, relevant indicators are expected to improve in fiscal year 2027 as Bitcoin prices recover.
at last
CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten offered a perspective worth considering: in this cycle, Strategy (MSTR) absorbed about 75% of the retracement, thus preventing Bitcoin itself from experiencing an equivalent decline, as volatility shifted from spot Bitcoin to MSTR common stock.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor's large-scale stock issuance at approximately 1x mNAV effectively acted as a final risk absorber. Within this valuation range, the risk of new entrants was transferred to investors willing to buy MSTR at that price level, rather than continuing to pressure the Bitcoin spot market, thus mitigating the formation of a bear market to some extent.
The significance of this perspective lies in its redefinition of the relationship between MSTR and Bitcoin. MSTR is no longer merely a highly leveraged mapping of Bitcoin, but rather, within the current market structure, it is gradually evolving into an intermediary layer that carries, transmits, and releases Bitcoin volatility. Due to its higher liquidity, mature short mechanism, and abundant options instruments, when market risk appetite declines, investors may tend to express their risk assessment of Bitcoin by selling or hedging MSTR, rather than directly selling Bitcoin spot.
Of course, these institutions and individuals who choose to long on MSTR may not necessarily be correct. But their very existence is worth careful observation. This is because structural bottoms in the market often do not emerge after sentiment improves, but rather when sentiment is still extreme, yet some have already chosen to act contrarian.
Observing investors’ behavior on MSTR at this stage is actually observing how they view the risks, expectations, and cyclical position of Bitcoin.
