The wide fluctuations in the first half of 2026 are an inevitable part of the transition between old and new pricing logics, and the convergence of fluctuations in the second half of the year will verify the final establishment of the neutral value reserve narrative.
Article author: GD
Article source: MarsBit
In 2026, the Bitcoin market is at a historic turning point. On a macro level, intense global geopolitical conflicts are exacerbating the collapse of the existing financial system. The petrodollar hegemony established by the United States through the Bretton Woods system is facing a fierce challenge from the RMB system built by China through its manufacturing and high-tech industry advantages. This transformation towards a multipolar financial order provides a historic opportunity for blockchain technology. On the surface, there are significant disagreements in the market regarding price trajectories, the actual contribution of DAT, and the pace of volatility convergence. However, behind these short-term path disputes lies a profound and unified consensus in the market regarding Bitcoin's long-term positioning: Bitcoin's pricing mechanism has been completely decoupled from the halving cycle narrative, and its pricing power is irreversibly shifting from crypto-native funds to being dominated by the asset allocation logic of traditional capital markets . Its core value anchor has moved from the grand narrative of digital gold to a core strategic asset allocation in the balance sheets of nations and institutions , and its long-term volatility converging towards that of commodities has become an inevitable trend.
Looking ahead to 2026, the market will experience wide fluctuations in the first half of the year, driven by the interplay between ETF/DAT fund inflows and macroeconomic volatility . As macroeconomic policies such as the Fed's interest rate cuts take effect in the second half of the year, and as the holdings of countries and institutions continue to expand, the consensus on the transfer of pricing power will become more prominent, leading to a narrowing of price volatility. Geopolitical risk aversion and the demand for multipolar financial infrastructure will accelerate the strategic allocation of Bitcoin by countries and institutions , and the narrative of neutral value store will completely dominate the market .
1. Introduction: A New Market Landscape Emerges Amidst Divergence
For a long time, the Bitcoin market has followed a pattern of dramatic fluctuations driven by retail sentiment, leverage cycles, and the supply-side narrative of the quadrennial halving. However, since the approval of spot ETFs in January 2024 and the structural adjustment of the market in 2025, a new pattern is quietly taking shape.
More than 30 top Wall Street and crypto-native institutions, in their annual outlooks released between December 2025 and January 2026, unanimously pointed out that the cryptocurrency industry is moving from "adolescent exuberance" to "adult maturity," entering what is known as the "industrialization phase." Grayscale, in its report released on December 15, 2025, named this "Dawn of the Institutional Era," and at the heart of this transformation is the shift in Bitcoin's pricing power : the beginning of Bitcoin officially filling the vacuum of "neutral value store" in a multipolar geopolitical landscape.
At a deeper level, the rapid changes in the current geopolitical landscape are accelerating this process. Countries like Russia and Iran are effectively circumventing US economic sanctions through Bitcoin and stablecoin settlements, while developing countries hope to leverage blockchain technology to establish a complete financial infrastructure independent of the traditional Western financial system. Meanwhile, US institutional investors are allocating Bitcoin to hedge against the risk of dollar inflation. This need for restructuring a global multipolar financial order provides Bitcoin with unprecedented strategic allocation value.
On-chain data confirms the profoundness of this shift: As of January 13, 2026, the circulating supply of Bitcoin reached 19,975,087, with 95.12% already mined . The annualized inflation rate dropped to 0.823% , the first time in history it has fallen below gold's 1.5%-2%. Meanwhile, institutional holdings are unprecedented—US spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of $56.4 billion, managing assets of $116.86 billion, representing 6.48% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization; approximately 160 listed companies globally hold 1.105 million BTC (5.53% of the total supply), with Strategy alone holding 687,400. These "non-circulating reserves" lock up approximately 1.7 million BTC, equivalent to 8.5% of the circulating supply, structurally reshaping the market's supply and demand landscape.
This chapter will focus on the apparent divergences in the market during the current transition period, and penetrate these divergences to demonstrate the underlying unified long-term logic driven by a neutral value reserve.
2. Three dimensions of market divergence: Data-driven path game
Despite a convergence of long-term trends, there are significant differences of opinion in the market regarding how to reach the other side in 2026, mainly reflected in the following three dimensions:
2.1 The Debate on Price Trajectory: One-Sided Breakouts vs. Wide-Range Fluctuations
An optimistic view holds that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, with a target range of $120,000 to $225,000. This expectation is primarily supported by the combined effect of three funding engines.
First, there's the continued net inflow into ETFs. Bitwise's 2026 outlook boldly asserts that "ETFs will purchase over 100% of the new Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana supply." This means ETF buying will completely absorb the supply contraction after the halving and snatch tokens from the existing market. As of January 2026, US spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of 600,590 BTC. Following Bitwise's logic, with an annual new supply of approximately 164,250 BTC after the 2026 halving, ETFs only need to maintain their current monthly inflow rate of 20,000-30,000 BTC to achieve over-coverage.
Secondly, there's the continued cryptocurrency purchases by DAT companies. 160 publicly listed companies globally have included Bitcoin in their balance sheets, with Strategy Group increasing its holdings to 687,400 coins by 2025. Companies like iPower have even used dedicated financing to purchase Bitcoin. The continued inclusion of these companies in the MSCI index further validates the mainstream adoption of this strategy.
Thirdly, there is the macroeconomic benefit brought about by the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to restart its interest rate cut cycle in the second half of 2026, and the improvement in global liquidity will create a favorable environment for risk assets. These three layers of funding support, forming a dual funding support of institutional allocation and macroeconomic liquidity, are sufficient to drive prices to break through the historical high of 2025.
A more cautious perspective takes a completely different stance. Galaxy Digital, in its December 18, 2025 report, stated bluntly that 2026 was "too chaotic to predict," but based on options market pricing, it gave an equal probability range of $70,000-$150,000 by year-end. This assessment was based on three major headwinds.
First, there's the high correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets. Social media analysis shows that Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has exceeded 0.7, making it more susceptible to the transmission effects of macroeconomic fluctuations in the US stock market. In 2026, a pivotal year for global macroeconomic policy, uncertainties such as the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, and recurring inflation in Europe will directly impact Bitcoin prices.
Secondly, there's the technical resistance revealed by on-chain data. UTXO ageband analysis shows a large concentration of holdings with costs between $92,100 and $117,400 . These holdings, bought near the 2025 high, constitute strong upward supply pressure. The current price has touched the lower edge of this cost cluster, and any upward movement will require time and capital to absorb the selling pressure from these trapped positions. The cost base for short-term holders, around $95,000, will be a key psychological and technical resistance level.
Thirdly, there is uncertainty surrounding ETF fund flows. Despite substantial cumulative inflows, ETFs may experience periods of net outflows. Between October and December 2025, Bitcoin's price corrected by 40% from its peak, yet its market capitalization remained stable at a historical high of $1.125 trillion. This suggests that institutional holders did not panic sell, but it also implies a slowdown in new fund inflows. If a deteriorating macroeconomic environment leads to sustained net outflows from ETFs, it will directly undermine the narrative of institutional demand.
The core judgment of the cautious camp is that the outcome of the struggle between the sustainability of institutional funds and macroeconomic uncertainties will determine whether 2026 will see a unilateral breakthrough or wide-ranging fluctuations .
2.2 The DAT Narrative Debate: Continuous Engine vs. Fragile Flywheel
The debate surrounding the DAT model also presents diametrically opposed viewpoints.
Supporters view DAT as a continuous funding engine , considering it another source of institutionalized demand after ETFs. As of January 2026, approximately 160 publicly traded companies worldwide hold Bitcoin, with the top 100 holding a total of 1.105 million BTC, representing 5.53% of the total supply. This amount exceeds the sovereign reserves envisioned by many single countries, becoming a significant structural demand.
Companies like iPower using dedicated financing to purchase DAT, and Strategy's continued expansion of its holdings, demonstrate that DAT is not merely a passive buy-and-hold strategy, but rather an active asset management approach. The continued inclusion of companies like Strategy in the MSCI index further validates market acceptance of this model. Supporters believe that as more companies follow suit, DAT will create fundamental demand independent of price , providing long-term support for Bitcoin.
Skeptics characterize DAT as a passive model dependent on coin price , emphasizing its inherent fragility. Grayscale, in a report dated December 15, 2025, directly labeled DAT a "red herring," arguing that its media hype outweighed its actual pricing impact and that it would not be a major market factor in 2026. Galaxy Digital went even further, issuing a warning on December 4, 2025, predicting that at least five DAT companies would go bankrupt or be acquired in 2026 due to operational problems .
Skeptics' core argument lies in the fact that DAT's "buy-finance" flywheel model is highly dependent on rising cryptocurrency prices. Standard Chartered Bank, in a report, pointed out that DAT's stock price is highly leveraged and correlated with Bitcoin's price; a deep price correction could trigger a negative spiral of "stock price decline → financing difficulties → forced selling → further price decline." Social media analyses also explicitly predict that "DAT's leveraged structure will force the liquidation of reserves during a downturn, and the stock price will go to zero within 12 months."
On-chain data shows that the share prices of small DAT companies have long been below their Bitcoin net asset value (mNAV).
The crux of the disagreement lies in whether the DAT model creates fundamental demand independent of price or merely a passive follower that amplifies market volatility .
2.3 The debate over volatility convergence: 2026 realization versus delay to 2027
There is also disagreement in the market regarding the timeline for Bitcoin volatility to converge with that of traditional assets.
Optimistic forecasts suggest convergence will occur by the end of 2026. Bitwise boldly asserts in its prediction that "Bitcoin's volatility will be lower than Nvidia's for the first time." This prediction is symbolic—Nvidia, as a representative of technology stocks, has a volatility far higher than traditional commodities. If Bitcoin's volatility is lower than Nvidia's, it means that Bitcoin's asset attributes have undergone a fundamental change.
This expectation is based on the continued increase in institutional holdings. ETFs and DAT, as non-circulating inventory, lock up approximately 1.7 million BTC, representing 8.5% of the circulating supply, significantly reducing speculative circulating supply in the market. The buying and holding behavior of institutional investors contrasts sharply with the high-frequency trading of retail investors, effectively smoothing out short-term speculative fluctuations.
Another prediction from Bitwise adds: "The correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will decrease," which means that Bitcoin will gradually shed its "risk asset beta" positioning and evolve into an independent asset class, thereby reducing the transmission effect of macroeconomic fluctuations.
A more cautious view suggests that convergence will be delayed until 2027. VanEck, in his long-term capital markets hypothesis, points out that Bitcoin's annualized volatility is expected to remain in the 40%-70% range, comparable to leading-edge stocks and far higher than gold's 15%-20%. This judgment is based on three reasons.
First, reshaping asset characteristics is not something that can be accomplished overnight. Although institutional holdings are unprecedented, retail investors and leveraged traders still account for a considerable proportion, and a complete transformation of the market structure will require more time.
Secondly, market data from early 2026 shows that implied volatility has moderately rebounded from historical lows, indicating that the market's pricing in short-term volatility has not disappeared. Galaxy Digital notes that Bitcoin is shifting towards a macro asset skew, with put option prices higher than call option prices, reflecting market concerns about downside risks.
Third, the impact of macroeconomic data remains significant. In a year of global macroeconomic policy transition, changes in liquidity expectations could still cause periodic shocks to Bitcoin. Some KOLs have stated, "I am optimistic about January and February in the short term, but pessimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, as liquidity is insufficient to support momentum." If geopolitical conflicts escalate and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts fall short of expectations, volatility may rebound in stages.
The core of the disagreement lies in whether the institutionalization process can achieve a qualitative leap from quantitative change by 2026, resulting in a substantial convergence of volatility, or whether it will need to continue until 2027.
3. Unification Amidst Divergence: An Irreversible Trend Towards Institutionalization
Despite differing opinions on the aforementioned paths, market participants have reached a strong consensus on the following three fundamental issues, which form the cornerstone of Bitcoin's new value narrative.
3.1 Consensus 1: The transfer of pricing power is complete, and the narrative of the halving cycle is marginalized.
This is the most fundamental consensus above all the disagreements. In a report in December 2025, multiple institutions, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, and Fidelity, clearly declared that the narrative of Bitcoin's "four-year halving cycle" has completely failed .
21Shares bluntly stated that "the four-year cycle has broken," Bitwise predicted that "Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and reach a new high," Fidelity discussed in its live stream that "the traditional four-year cycle of cryptocurrencies may have ended," and Grayscale even titled its report "the end of the so-called 'four-year cycle'."
Data supports this assertion. After the fourth halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's price increase was far less than the previous three cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020, indicating that the halving's boosting effect on prices has drastically diminished. More importantly, the driving force has completely shifted from the "supply side (halving)" to the "demand side (value store) . "
Fidelity states that the market has entered a "new paradigm." ETFs are increasingly accounting for a significant portion of total Bitcoin trading volume, becoming new liquidity hubs and price discovery centers. As of January 2026, ETFs had seen a net inflow of 600,590 BTC, equivalent to 100% of the total new supply (approximately 600,000 BTC) from the April 2024 halving to January 2026, completely absorbing the supply contraction.
The growing popularity of DAT strategies and discussions about sovereign reserves is further systematically locking up supply. Asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity conduct quarterly asset allocation for their clients, and their cash flows have become a more sustainable pricing factor than halvings. Institutional and traditional financial buyers are battling cyclical sellers, and Bitcoin's scarcity relative to gold and real estate is being underestimated.
The power to set prices has shifted from crypto-native funds focused on the "block reward halving" to traditional asset management institutions that focus on "Sharpe ratio, asset correlation, and allocation ratio ." This is an irreversible power shift.
3.2 Consensus Two: Value Anchoring Reshaping Becomes a Core Allocation on Institutional Balance Sheets
Regardless of short-term price sentiment, the market acknowledges that Bitcoin's long-term value foundation has shifted. It no longer relies solely on the relatively abstract narrative of digital gold, but is concretely anchored on three solid pillars, and has gained additional strategic value in the context of the current geopolitical restructuring .
1. Moderate and analyzable correlation with traditional assets .
While the current correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 exceeds 0.7, which some view as a risk, institutional observers consider this correlation modelable and predictable. Bitwise predicts that "the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will decrease," implying that as institutional allocation increases, Bitcoin will gradually move away from being a purely risky asset (Beta) and evolve into an independent asset class. This moderate correlation allows it to be incorporated into traditional portfolio mean-variance optimization models, rather than being seen as a completely isolated speculative product.
2. Absolute and verifiable scarcity .
As of January 13, 2026, 95.12% of Bitcoin has been mined, and the annualized inflation rate has dropped to 0.823%, the first time in history it has fallen below gold's 1.5%-2% . The hard cap of 21 million coins is guaranteed by a consensus protocol and cannot be tampered with by any central authority. This "algorithmic scarcity" differs from gold's "physical scarcity" and is more suitable for value storage in the digital age.
3. Increasingly improved compliance configuration channels .
The U.S. GENIUS Act, signed into law by President Trump on July 18, 2025, establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring 100% reserves and monthly disclosures. Its regulatory clarity benefits the entire industry. The CLARITY Act, passed by the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, will separate the regulatory powers of the CFTC and SEC and provide a safe harbor for DeFi, significantly reducing legal uncertainty for institutional participation. The EU's MiCA Regulation, effective December 30, 2024, classifies Bitcoin as another crypto asset, requiring service providers to operate with licenses and comply with disclosure and anti-manipulation rules; full implementation will continue until 2026. These legislative developments mark a shift from fragmented to systematic crypto regulation, laying the legal foundation for large-scale institutional investment and the healthy development of the industry.
4. The strategic value of geopolitical risk aversion and financial order restructuring.
In the context of a multipolar global geopolitical landscape, Bitcoin exhibits unique strategic value. Sanctioned countries like Russia and Iran are using Bitcoin and stablecoins for cross-border settlements, effectively circumventing traditional financial regulations. Third-world countries are leveraging blockchain technology to build independent financial infrastructure, reducing their dependence on the Western-dominated financial system. Meanwhile, US institutional investors are allocating Bitcoin to hedge against the devaluation of the US dollar and inflationary pressures. This cross-national and cross-alignment allocation demand provides Bitcoin with geopolitical alpha opportunities that traditional assets lack.
The combination of these four pillars enables Bitcoin to formally enter the asset allocation models of pension funds, insurance funds, and family offices as a non-sovereign, inflation-resistant, and neutral value reserve asset . The opening of digital asset allocation in US 401(k) pension plans will generate significant potential buying interest based on allocation weights of 1% to 5%. Meanwhile, over 41% of hedge funds plan to allocate to cryptocurrencies, sovereign wealth funds such as the Norwegian Pension Fund have begun piloting reserves, and traditional wealth management platforms like Morgan Stanley plan to offer Bitcoin ETF allocation options to clients by 2026.
Grayscale also wrote in its report: "2026 will accelerate structural shifts...broadening adoption (particularly among advisory wealth and institutional investors)." This marks a qualitative change in Bitcoin's value anchor, shifting it from a speculative asset to a strategic allocation asset.
3.3 Consensus 3: Volatility converging towards commodities is an inevitable long-term trend.
Despite disagreement on whether the goal of lower volatility than Nvidia can be achieved by 2026, both sides agree on the core logic of "increased institutionalization → decreased volatility" and the inevitable trend of volatility converging towards mature commodities such as gold in the long term.
From the supply side, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate has fallen below that of gold for the first time, establishing its status as an ultra-scarce commodity. With a supply cap of 21 million coins, the inflation rate will continue to decline, and each halving will further tighten the supply.
From the demand side, the inclusive allocation of ETFs and the long-term locking of DAT together form a dual stabilizer to reduce speculative selling pressure in the market. On-chain data shows that ETFs and DAT together lock up approximately 1.7 million BTC, accounting for 8.5% of the circulating supply. Holders of these non-circulating inventories are aiming for long-term allocation, and their turnover rate is far lower than that of retail investors and leveraged traders.
Glassnode data shows that as profit-taking pressure eases and ETF demand re-emerges, the market is transitioning from "defensive deleveraging" to "selective risk-taking," resulting in a healthier structure. The market capitalization has stabilized at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that holders' average cost basis is solid and not easily swayed by short-term fluctuations.
Galaxy Digital points out that Bitcoin is experiencing a "structural decrease in long-term volatility" and shifting towards "macro asset skew." This means that Bitcoin's volatility pattern is shifting from "endogenous speculative volatility" driven by leverage and liquidation to "exogenous macro volatility" driven by Federal Reserve policies and risk appetite, the latter of which has volatility characteristics more similar to traditional commodities.
Institutional investors seek assets with manageable volatility that can be incorporated into traditional portfolios, and their continued entry is the biggest driver of declining volatility. When long-term funds such as pension funds and insurance funds become the main marginal buyers, the price of Bitcoin will no longer be dominated by the profit-seeking behavior of leveraged traders, but will be driven by the rebalancing of long-term asset allocation, and volatility will naturally converge towards traditional assets.
Therefore, the downward shift in volatility and its convergence with mature commodities such as gold is a widely recognized long-term inevitable trend . The only disagreement lies in whether this process will be completed in 2026 or continue into 2027.
4. 2026 Trend Outlook: From Divergence and Competition to Deepening Consensus
Based on the analysis of the above disagreements and consensuses, and combining on-chain data, institutional reports, and social media narratives, I make the following independent judgment on the trajectory of the Bitcoin market in 2026:
4.1 2026 H1: Divergence Dominates, Wide-Range Fluctuations
The market will be in a "adjustment period" of transition between old and new paradigms. On the one hand, ETF funds may see a return to net inflows as macro sentiment improves. As of January 2026, ETF assets under management reached $116.86 billion, and if the growth trajectory expected by institutions continues, net inflows for the whole of 2026 could reach tens of billions of dollars. DAT companies may also make new allocations, and continued purchases by leading companies such as Strategy will provide support for prices.
On the other hand, the high correlation with traditional stock markets and the historical overhead supply will severely limit the upside potential and speed. On-chain data shows that the cost base of UTXOs is densely distributed between $92,100 and $117,400 , with short-term holders' cost base around $95,000. These ranges will constitute strong technical resistance levels, and the market will experience a round of FOMO once the price breaks through $100,000.
On the macro level, the risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts in the first half of 2026, the unclear pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and fluctuating European inflation data will all directly impact Bitcoin prices.
Taking all factors into account, prices are more likely to fluctuate widely , repeatedly oscillating between institutional support and macroeconomic volatility and technical resistance . $100,000 will be a key psychological and technical resistance level. During this phase, investors should focus on ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve policy signals, and changes in the distribution of tokens in the on-chain and futures markets, rather than hoping for a one-sided breakout.
4.2 2026 H2: Consensus Emerges, Volatility Converges
As the second half of the year progresses, the consensus on the shift in pricing power will become more deeply ingrained, driving the market towards a more stable state.
First, it is becoming clearer that the Federal Reserve is entering a rate-cutting cycle , and the improved global liquidity environment will create macroeconomic benefits for risk assets and Bitcoin.
Secondly, after the first half of the year's consolidation, the resistance from the overhead supply is expected to be partially resolved. Those holding trapped positions will either cut their losses and exit during the repeated fluctuations or switch to long-term holding, easing supply pressure and creating conditions for a price breakout.
More importantly, institutional holdings will continue to expand. If Bitwise's prediction that "the ETF will purchase more than 100% of the new supply" comes true, the ETF's assets under management are expected to approach or exceed $150 billion by the end of the year. After the risk testing in the first half of the year, if DAT does not collapse due to the price correction, its holdings may also increase further. The increasing proportion of institutional holdings will structurally reduce the speculative circulating supply in the market.
By then, the market consensus that pricing power has been substantially transferred will be more deeply ingrained. Bitcoin's price movement may become relatively uneventful, as predicted by Galaxy Digital—no longer experiencing the dramatic monthly surges and crashes of 30%-50%, but rather fluctuating moderately amidst the rebalancing of institutional holdings. The narrative of its core assets and neutral value reserves on institutional balance sheets will become the dominant market narrative , and the price is expected to break through previous highs on a more solid foundation.
If the CLARITY Act passes the Senate in 2026, the increased regulatory clarity will trigger a new wave of institutional FOMO, becoming a key catalyst for the second half of the year. Bitwise explicitly stated that "the passage of the CLARITY Act will drive Ethereum and Solana to new highs," and the boost to Bitcoin will be even more significant.
Based on comprehensive assessment, Bitcoin is expected to enter a phase of reduced volatility and steady upward movement in the second half of the year , with the price potentially stabilizing in the $100,000-$150,000 range by the end of the year, laying the foundation for further breakthroughs in 2027.
4.3 Risk Warning
1. Risk of recurring macroeconomic inflation
If global inflation rebounds more than expected (e.g., due to energy price shocks or renewed supply chain disruptions), forcing the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish again and delay or pause rate cuts, it will simultaneously dampen risk appetite and Bitcoin's macro hedging narrative. The risk of a Bank of Japan rate hike also warrants attention. Historically, unwinding yen carry trades has caused Bitcoin to fall by more than 20% during periods of low liquidity. If Japan's rate hikes exceed expectations in the first half of 2026, this scenario could be repeated.
2. Risk of tightening compliance policies
While the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act represent an improvement in the regulatory framework, compliance requirements for the crypto industry, such as Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), could suddenly intensify. The GENIUS Act already requires stablecoin issuers to comply with the BSA, including AML procedures, sanctions screening, and customer verification. If similar requirements are extended to Bitcoin ETFs and DAT companies, it will increase the cost of institutional participation and reduce their attractiveness.
3. Risk of reversal in cash flow
Unexpected and sustained net outflows from ETFs would directly undermine the narrative of institutional demand. The 40% price correction from October to December 2025 already demonstrated the reality of this risk. If the macroeconomic environment deteriorates (such as a renewed hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve or heightened concerns about a global recession), pension funds and insurance funds may reduce their allocations to risky assets, and ETFs will be the first to face redemption pressure. Due to the lack of diversified buying from retail investors, a concentrated sell-off of ETFs could trigger a liquidity-depleted decline that is steeper than in previous cycles.
4. Risk of DAT model default
Galaxy Digital predicts that at least five DAT companies will go bankrupt or be acquired by 2026, a risk that was most prominent during the period of price volatility in the first half of the year. If leading companies like Strategy are forced to sell off their Bitcoin holdings due to stock price or operational problems (although this seems highly unlikely at present, smaller DAT companies are at a higher risk), it will trigger a chain reaction in the market.
in conclusion
The Bitcoin market in 2026 stands at the crossroads of two eras: "speculative-driven" and "institutional-driven." The apparent divergences in price, DAT, and volatility are essentially different judgments by the market regarding the pace of transformation rather than the direction of transformation .
Three unified consensuses—irreversible transfer of pricing power, value anchored to national and institutional allocations, and long-term volatility convergence—have formed the cornerstone of the new paradigm. On-chain data confirms the profoundness of this shift: over 95% of the BTC supply has been mined, the inflation rate of 0.823% is lower than gold, institutions have locked 8.5% of the circulating supply, and the market capitalization has stabilized at a historical high of $1.125 trillion. These structural changes will not be reversed by short-term price fluctuations.
As investors, we need to move beyond a mere obsession with price fluctuations and instead focus on milestones in the institutionalization process: the progress of the Clarity Act, ETF fund flows, the resilience test of the DAT model during market volatility, and the Fed's interest rate cut timetable. The wide fluctuations in the first half of 2026 are an inevitable step in the transition between old and new pricing logics, while the convergence of volatility in the second half of the year will validate the final establishment of the neutral value store narrative.
At the dawn of the institutional era, Bitcoin's competitiveness will no longer depend on the sentiment of retail investors or the costs of miners, but on its ability to prove itself as an irreplaceable strategic asset in the asset allocation models of national reserves, pension funds, insurance funds, and sovereign wealth funds.
This is a shift in pricing power from "digital gold" to "neutral store of value," and also a coming-of-age ceremony for Bitcoin as it moves from adolescence to maturity.
