Author: Hotcoin Research

Crypto market performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.1 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.2%, or $1.83 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $308.1 billion, a decrease of 0.75% in the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 60.57%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap , most declined while a few rose. Specifically, BTC fell 6.87% in 7 days, ETH fell 11.6% in 7 days, SOL fell 11.2% in 7 days, AXS rose 122.1% in 7 days, and ZRO rose 34.8% in 7 days.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $1.32 billion; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $600 million.

Market Forecast (January 26 - February 1):

The current RSI is 44.24 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 25 (re-entering the fear range), and the Alternative Season Index is 39 (neutral, higher than last week).

BTC core range: $88,000-92,000, with a short-term overall bias towards high-level fluctuations.

ETH core range: $2,900-$3,300, awaiting directional choice.

Solana's core trading range is $124-$137. Technically, bullish and bearish signals are mixed, awaiting a new catalyst. Solana's anticipated "Alpenglow" network upgrade in Q1 2026 could be a significant catalyst affecting its price.

The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing extremely high volatility, and short-term price movements are highly sensitive to news. Special attention should be paid to Trump's foreign tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy signals, as these factors will influence risk appetite across the entire crypto market.

Understanding the present

Review of the week's major events

1. On January 19, the cryptocurrency market experienced a "flash crash" in the early hours of Monday, with Bitcoin falling by as much as 3.79% in the past hour, dropping from around $95,500 to $91,900, before recovering to around $92,800.
2. On January 18, Sonic stated, "As planned, 16,027,929.41 S tokens were successfully destroyed through a completely permissionless smart contract execution. These tokens were allocated to the unclaimed first quarter airdrop."
3. On January 18, according to Defillama data, Meteora's revenue in the past 24 hours reached $1.33 million, surpassing Pump.fun's revenue of $1.16 million in the past 24 hours, second only to Tether ($16.45 million) and Circle ($6.6 million).
4. On January 19, according to an update on Paradex's official website status page, its blockchain status had been restored at 20:13.
5. On January 20, the yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose 5.5 basis points to 4%, the highest level since issuance in 2007, and the first time in more than 30 years that the yield on Japanese government bonds has reached this level. This marks the first time that the yield on Japanese government bonds has climbed back above 4% since December 1995 (when the 20-year yield touched 4%).
6. On January 21, according to Bitget market data, spot gold surged 10% in 20 days, breaking through $4,800 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over $480.
7. On January 21, the cryptocurrency wallet Rainbow announced that it would take a snapshot of the RNBW token airdrop at 16:20 Eastern Time on January 26, with the official airdrop taking place on February 5.
8. On January 22, Trump stated that he would not impose tariffs on Greenland, and cryptocurrencies briefly rebounded again in response.
9. On January 22, North Korean hackers launched a counterattack, attacking more than 3,100 IP addresses using fake job interviews.
10. On January 23, the Financial Times reported that SpaceX, Musk's rocket manufacturer, is looking for Wall Street investment banks for a "mega" IPO, which is expected to be one of the largest IPOs in history.
11. On January 22, cryptocurrency custody service provider BitGo (BTGO.US) officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first cryptocurrency IPO this year.

Macroeconomics

1. On January 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending January 17 was 200,000, compared with an expected 210,000 and a revised previous figure of 199,000 from 198,000.
2. At 23:00 on January 23, the United States released the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January, which came in at 56.4, compared with a forecast of 54 and a previous reading of 54.
3. According to CME's FedWatch tool, on January 23, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 5.7%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 94.3%.

ETF

According to statistics, from January 19th to January 24th, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.32 billion. As of January 24th, GBTC (Grayscale) experienced a total outflow of $25.539 billion, currently holding $14.414 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.721 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $120.315 billion.

Net outflow from US Ethereum spot ETF : $600 million.

Predicting the future

Industry Conference

1. Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from February 11th to 12th.
2. ETHDenver 2026 will be held in Denver, USA, from February 17th to 21st.
3. EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30 to April 2, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe's largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.

Project progress

1. Defiance will close its Nasdaq-listed Ethereum ETF, Defiance Leveraged Long & Yield Ethereum ETF (ETHI), on January 26.
2. The deadline for claiming the first batch of RollX tokens from the Base network's Perp DEX protocol is January 26th. The total supply of genesis airdropped tokens is 180 million. Eligible addresses include Trade & LP point holders and contributors who participated in activities on Binance Wallet, Bitlayer, Galxe, etc.
3. The application window for Aster's Phase 4 airdrop will open on January 28, 2026.
4. The TON ecosystem project, Catizen game Pixel Ninja, will be shut down on January 29, 2026.
5. The cross-chain aggregation DeFi platform Infinex TGE is scheduled to launch on January 30. The public sale had 868 participants, raising 7.214 million USDC, distributing approximately $5 million (5% of the INX supply), and refunding approximately $2.21 million.
6. Coinbase is suspending its services in Argentina. Starting January 31, 2026, Coinbase will no longer support the buying and selling of USDC using Argentine pesos, but deposit and withdrawal functions will remain unaffected.
7. The metaverse avatar platform Ready Player Me has been acquired by Netflix and will cease operations on January 31, 2026. All team members will be integrated into Netflix.

Important events

1. Starting January 28th, the South Korean Financial Institutional Investor (FIU) will restrict unregistered overseas crypto exchage and wallets from listing on Google Play. Registration requirements include an Anti-Money Laundering (AML) system and Information Security Management System (ISMS) certification issued by the Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA). Apps that do not comply with this policy will be blocked in South Korea from January 28th onwards. New users will be unable to install them, and existing users may face inaccessibility due to update issues.
2. At 22:45 on January 28, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision for January 28.
3. At 03:00 on January 29, the United States will announce the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit) for the period up to January 28.
4. At 21:30 on January 29, the United States will release the number of initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending January 24.

Token unlocking

1. Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.45 million tokens on January 28, worth approximately $10.53 million, representing 1.7% of the circulating supply.
2. TreeHouse (TREE) will unlock 85.85 million tokens on January 29, worth approximately $8.5 million, representing 39.41% of the circulating supply.
3. Zora (ZORA) will unlock 168 million tokens on January 30, worth approximately $5.23 million, representing 4% of the circulating supply.
4. Kamino (KMNO) will unlock 228 million tokens on January 30, worth approximately $11.22 million, representing 3.68% of the circulating supply.
5. Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on January 31, worth approximately $9.88 million, representing 1.62% of the circulating supply.
6. Sui (SUI) will unlock 43.52 million tokens on February 1st, worth approximately $65.29 million, representing 1.15% of the circulating supply.
7. EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on February 1, worth approximately $12.53 million, representing 8.88% of the circulating supply.

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