So, FOMC tomorrow, no rates move expected…
But let’s take a moment to look at corporate earnings, which arguably have an increasingly significant impact on the US economy and on household wealth…
With reporting season under say, earnings are doing well… /1
(chart @FactSet)

Twitter

The release of this new regulation marks a historic leap in the attitude of Chinese regulators towards virtual assets, shifting from a "complete ban" to a "combination of restriction and guidance."

Article Author & Source: Guofeng Law Firm On February 6, 2026, the "Notice on Further Preventing and Handling Risks Related to Virtual Currencies" (Yinfa [2026] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 42"), jointly issued by eight ministries led by the People's Bank of China, and the "Regulatory Guidelines on the Issuance of Asset-Backed Securities Tokens Overseas by Domestic Assets" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines") simultaneously issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, have triggered significant reactions in the legal and financial circles...

Breaking News! The Year of China's RWA: A Compliant Channel Opens for Trillions of Yuan in Domestic Assets to Go Global

Unusual trading in BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has led traders to speculate that this week’s sharp Bitcoin drop may have been triggered by one or more Hong Kong–based hedge ...

Bitcoin Selloff Sparks Hedge Fund Speculation Around BlackRock ETF

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote that the recent Bitcoin crash may stem from traders' concerns about IBIT (BlackRock) […]
The article, "Arthur Hayes Speculates on BTC Crash Cause: 'Institutional Hedging Operations': IBIT Options Explode $900 Million," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Arthur Hayes speculates that the reason for the BTC crash is "institutional hedging operations": IBIT options saw a surge of $900 million.

What’s more, they’re expected to continue to do well in 2026.
Even the components of the S&P 500 outside the Mag5 are expected to see 2026 earnings growth of >12%, vs ~4% in 2025.
That’s pretty good.  /2
(chart @Factset - links below)

BUT periods of high earnings growth usually DO NOT COINCIDE with rate cuts. Very unusual.
Why would this time be different? Rick Rieder says “mortgage rates”, but they aren’t decided by FOMC moves, they’re more closely linked to the long-term bond market. /3
(chart @opinion)

And the jobs market may be slowing but not crashing, arguably healthy given the drop in the workforce and the AI impact.
So, seriously, why – in a time of solid and rising earnings – would the FOMC feel the need to lower rates?