If history is any indication, the market cycle low for Bitcoin will occur between October 3rd to October 11th of 2026, plus or minus a few days.
I'm sure plenty of rallies will occur between now and then.

Twitter

The release of this new regulation marks a historic leap in the attitude of Chinese regulators towards virtual assets, shifting from a "complete ban" to a "combination of restriction and guidance."

Article Author & Source: Guofeng Law Firm On February 6, 2026, the "Notice on Further Preventing and Handling Risks Related to Virtual Currencies" (Yinfa [2026] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 42"), jointly issued by eight ministries led by the People's Bank of China, and the "Regulatory Guidelines on the Issuance of Asset-Backed Securities Tokens Overseas by Domestic Assets" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines") simultaneously issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, have triggered significant reactions in the legal and financial circles...

Breaking News! The Year of China's RWA: A Compliant Channel Opens for Trillions of Yuan in Domestic Assets to Go Global

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote that the recent Bitcoin crash may stem from traders' concerns about IBIT (BlackRock) […]
The article, "Arthur Hayes Speculates on BTC Crash Cause: 'Institutional Hedging Operations': IBIT Options Explode $900 Million," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Arthur Hayes speculates that the reason for the BTC crash is "institutional hedging operations": IBIT options saw a surge of $900 million.

Unusual trading in BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has led traders to speculate that this week’s sharp Bitcoin drop may have been triggered by one or more Hong Kong–based hedge ...

Bitcoin Selloff Sparks Hedge Fund Speculation Around BlackRock ETF

Of course since BTC topped on apathy, rather than euphoria, it will make sense to re-asses this view in the summer of 2026.