As markets digested last week’s FOMC outcome and clarity around the Fed chair nomination, volatility surged across asset classes. The so-called “Warsh shock” triggered a sharp reversal in liquidity expectations, leading to an aggressive sell-off in precious metals, a stronger U.S. dollar, and synchronized pressure across U.S. equity futures, Asian markets, and crypto assets. Global deleveraging has clearly accelerated.
This week’s macro focus shifts to U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. With few competing macro catalysts, NFP, the unemployment rate, and inflation expectations will be central to recalibrating the Fed’s policy path and liquidity trajectory. If labor data continues to signal resilience, expectations for rate cuts may compress further, keeping pressure on the dollar and real yields.
In crypto markets, downside pressure has already materialized, with price action closely tracking broader risk assets. Bitcoin remains in a high-level consolidation structure, reflecting hesitation around future liquidity conditions. Structurally, the 80,000 area acts as a key overhead resistance, while downside risk extends toward 71,000. A break below that level could open deeper deleveraging territory.
Bitunix Analyst View:
In the short term, heightened sensitivity and volatility are likely to persist ahead of NFP, leaving crypto unable to decouple from macro forces. Over the medium term, the true driver is not a single data release, but whether the “Warsh scenario” signals a return to a Fed framework centered on balance-sheet discipline and liquidity restraint. Rate decisions remain committee-driven, not chair-driven—risk management remains critical.
