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Hype was the worst trade I made recently. In early December last year, when it was $32, I set a goal to gradually build a position below $25. My logic at the time was that Perp DEX would have lower returns in a bear market, and the price would be further undervalued not only due to the market downturn but also due to declining data. In a bull market, however, it would spiral upwards, making it a very cost-effective target for buy the dips in a bear market.
As I expected, the price of the coin fell below $25. I didn't rush to build a position. Finally, on January 21st, I fired my first shot and long on 50wu at $21.7. Looking back now, it was a perfect bottom. However, after a small pullback following the price rebound, coupled with concerns about the market turning bearish further, I changed my mind and lowered my target range for building the position to $15-20. I also closed the position with a small profit.
Based on the logic of Perp dex, I also buy the dips$2 million worth of LIT at the same time, and it is now just fluctuating around the cost line. If I had bought Hype instead, the profit would be close to $1.5 million.
As we all know, BTC did indeed drop from 90k to 78k, while Hype rose all the way to $38 due to factors such as a surge in precious metals trading volume, collective criticism of Binance in the English-speaking world, whale being liquidated (HLP earning 15M in a single day), and the launch of HIP-4.
This should have been my best trade recently, and most of my judgments were indeed correct. However, because I didn't align my actions with my knowledge, I gained almost nothing. The conclusions I've drawn are:
1. Truly good targets often exhibit a degree of independence in their price movements, not completely following the rhythm of the overall market. For example, Hype fell earlier than BTC this time, and then rebounded against the market trend.
2. It is best to operate your planned medium- to long-term buy the dips positions in a separate account and avoid checking them frequently, otherwise you will be easily affected by profit and loss fluctuations.
3. The leading stock strategy will not fail most of the time. Don't pursue Beta just because of so-called cost-effectiveness. The one that can truly lead the market is the leading stock.
4. If you are already planning to build your position in batches, do not pursue an absolute bottom and cost advantage. Good prices and good news are hard to come by at the same time, as are low costs and large positions.

Sometimes, it's easy for external factors to disrupt your trading plan.
Brother Sun bought some spot goods.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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