On February 12, cryptocurrency analyst Axel published an article stating that two key liquidity indicators point to market weakness. The "Bitcoin: Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) 90-day Oscillator" fell back into negative territory after a brief positive turn in January (currently -0.15), and the 30-day change in USDT's market capitalization has fallen to -$2.87 billion, confirming a continued outflow of liquidity from the ecosystem.
Axel points out that in mid-January, the "SSR 90-day Oscillator" briefly touched +0.057, and the 30-day change in USDT's market capitalization also rebounded to +1.4 billion USD, coinciding with Bitcoin's brief breakthrough of $95,000. However, "neither of these signals held true"—by February, the "SSR 90-day Oscillator" turned negative again, and Bitcoin had retreated to $67,000.
"January was a tentative attempt at repair, and February was a failed attempt," Axel said. The six-month period dominated by the "pink zone" indicates that Bitcoin remains weak relative to stablecoins, and the market has returned to a risk-averse pattern. He emphasized that the real medium-term reversal signal is when the "SSR 90-day oscillator" returns above the zero line and stabilizes in the green zone for at least 2-3 weeks. Until then, every rebound should be regarded as a high volatility trap.
