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ToggleWhile the world is basking in the productivity boom brought by artificial intelligence (AI), a groundbreaking research report published by Citrini Research has issued a sobering warning. Titled "The Global AI Crisis of 2028," this report , presented from a 2028 retrospective perspective, simulates an extreme scenario where "the more successful AI is, the more the economy collapses." The report points out that while AI significantly enhances productivity, its large-scale replacement of white-collar workers and the erosion of traditional business moats could ultimately trigger a systemic financial storm affecting the real estate and credit markets.
Hidden Concerns Behind Soaring Productivity: "Ghost GDP" and Shrinking Consumption
The report describes that by the end of 2026, despite impressive S&P 500 and nominal GDP figures, the real economy is already showing signs of strain. As companies frantically invest in AI computing power with savings from labor costs, white-collar wage growth has stagnated or even declined. Economists have observed so-called "ghost GDP": while data shows increased output, wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few computing power holders and cannot enter the real economy. Since machines do not require consumption, the human consumer economy, which accounts for 70% of US GDP, is rapidly drying up, and the velocity of money is plummeting.
White-collar layoff spiral: Software and intermediary industries bear the brunt.
At the heart of this crisis lies the "human intelligence replacement spiral." The report points out that once AI possesses powerful coding and automation capabilities, companies no longer need expensive software subscriptions or intermediary consulting services. Taking the SaaS (Software as a Service) industry as an example, when clients lay off 15% of their staff due to increased AI efficiency, their software licenses also decrease, creating a negative feedback loop where "AI cannibalizes its own revenue."
Furthermore, industries that profit from "eliminating information asymmetry" or "handling cumbersome processes," such as real estate brokerage, insurance renewals, food delivery platforms, and financial advisors, find their competitive advantages vanishing in the face of AI agents. When AI agents can automatically find the cheapest options for consumers and avoid various fees, the profit margins of traditional business models are compressed to zero.
From Industry Crisis to Financial Tsunami: The Chain Reaction in the Private Lending and Mortgage Markets
As white-collar unemployment spread from the software industry to the entire service economy, the financial system began to collapse. The rapid expansion of "private credit" over the past decade led to a wave of defaults due to massive investments in now worthless SaaS companies, impacting life insurance companies that held these bonds as underlying assets.
Even more serious is the US mortgage market, totaling a staggering $13 trillion. The report warns that even borrowers with extremely high credit scores (such as a FICO score of 780) will see these "high-quality loans" turn into non-performing assets if their core income is halved or disappears due to AI replacement. The 2028 scenario shows that home prices in tech hubs like San Francisco and Seattle have already experienced double-digit declines, foreshadowing an asset repricing event comparable in scale to the 2008 financial crisis.
Policy Transformation and the Race Against Time: Towards a New System of "Intelligent Abundance"
Faced with a sharp decline in tax revenue due to a shrinking workforce, the government is under the dual pressure of fiscal deficits and social unrest. The report mentions that the US is considering the "Transition Economy Act," which includes taxing AI inference computing power and even establishing an "AI Shared Prosperity Fund" to directly distribute the revenue from smart infrastructure to households.
The report concludes that human history is undergoing a profound "intelligence premium correction." Human intelligence, which was once scarce, has become cheap and abundant, and the existing economic system must be restructured before it collapses.
However, while the scenarios depicted in the report are unsettling, the authors emphasize that they are merely simulations intended to remind investors and the general public that in the wave of the AI revolution, we still have time to re-examine asset allocation and actively plan for a more inclusive future.
